College of Economics, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan 063210, China.
College of Artificial Intelligence, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan 063210, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023 Jan 20;20(3):1945. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20031945.
The issue of climate and environment has been paid more and more attention by countries all over the world, especially regarding carbon emissions. Many national policies and scholars' research contents have focused on this issue, which has become a hot topic in today's society. As the world's largest carbon emitter, it is vital for China to achieve green development, upgrade its industrial structure and explore the relationship between industrial structure upgrading and carbon emissions. To explore the decoupling and interactive effects of industrial structure upgrading and carbon emissions, this paper divides industrial structure upgrading into two aspects: rationalization of industrial structure and upgrading of industrial structure. Indicators related to industrial structure upgrading and carbon emissions are selected and the decoupling model of carbon emissions and industrial structure upgrading is constructed using panel data from 30 regions from 1997 to 2019. The core density function is used to analyze the decoupling distribution characteristics, and then the Gini coefficient decomposition method is used to analyze the carbon emissions decoupling index, revealing the regional differences and sources of carbon emissions decoupling index. Finally, spatial factors are included in the regression model to verify the spatial synergy effect of industrial structure upgrading on carbon emissions. The overall and local Moran indexes are used to reveal the spatial internal structure and agglomeration characteristics of industrial structure upgrading and carbon emissions, and, based on the research results, policy recommendations are put forward to promote sustainable and stable development of industrial structure upgrading in China. This provides a new perspective for understanding the relationship between industrial structure upgrading and carbon emissions and also provides a decision-making reference for promoting decoupling of industrial structure upgrading and carbon emissions under high-quality economic development and forcing low-carbon transformation of the industrial structure.
气候与环境问题受到世界各国的日益关注，尤其是碳排放问题。许多国家政策和学者的研究内容都聚焦于此，使其成为当今社会的热点议题。中国作为世界最大的碳排放国，实现绿色发展、产业结构升级，探索产业结构升级与碳排放之间的关系至关重要。为了探讨产业结构升级与碳排放的脱钩和互动效应，本文将产业结构升级分为产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化两个方面。选取了与产业结构升级和碳排放相关的指标，利用 1997-2019 年 30 个地区的面板数据构建了碳排放与产业结构升级的脱钩模型。采用核心密度函数分析脱钩分布特征，然后利用基尼系数分解法分析碳排放脱钩指数，揭示了碳排放脱钩指数的区域差异和来源。最后，在回归模型中纳入空间因素，验证产业结构升级对碳排放的空间协同效应。运用全局和局部 Moran 指数揭示了产业结构升级和碳排放的空间内部结构和集聚特征。基于研究结果，提出了推动中国产业结构升级可持续稳定发展的政策建议，为理解产业结构升级与碳排放之间的关系提供了新视角，也为在高质量经济发展下推动产业结构升级与碳排放脱钩、倒逼产业结构低碳转型提供了决策参考。
