Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China.
School of Business Administration, Nanjing University of Finance and Economics, Nanjing 210046, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023 Jan 26;20(3):2224. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20032224.
The concept of green development requires that tourism development should be constrained by water and energy. This paper first constructed the calculation model of tourism water supply (TWS) based on water resources, economy, population, and employment. Second, according to the tourism life cycle theory, the energy-related water footprint account was built and combined with energy and water consumption, to realize water-energy dual constraints. Then, a suitability model between TWS and tourism water footprint (TWF) was established. Last, this paper predicted the growth rate of tourists in Xinjiang under the "suitability" state between TWS and TWF. Results show that in a future emergency-free setting, the average annual growth rate of tourists must be below 9.63% to maintain the "suitability" state, and in the context of emergencies damaging public health or socio-economic stability, the average annual growth rate may rise to 12.79%. In any scenario, the cap on tourist numbers in Xinjiang should be around 1.326 billion person-days in 2025, in line with the government's planning goal. Last, this paper proposed suggestions to advance the green development of tourism from three angles: strengthening water conservation policies, promoting digital tourism, and setting multiple environmental monitoring mechanisms.
绿色发展理念要求旅游发展应受到水和能源的约束。本文首先基于水资源、经济、人口和就业等因素构建了旅游供水（TWS）的计算模型。其次，根据旅游生命周期理论，构建了能源相关水足迹账户，并结合能源和水消耗，实现水-能双重约束。然后，建立了 TWS 与旅游水足迹（TWF）之间的适宜性模型。最后，本文预测了在 TWS 和 TWF 之间“适宜性”状态下新疆游客的增长率。结果表明，在无紧急情况的未来设定下，游客的年平均增长率必须低于 9.63%，才能维持“适宜性”状态，而在公共卫生或社会经济稳定受到紧急情况破坏的情况下，年平均增长率可能上升到 12.79%。在任何情况下，到 2025 年，新疆的游客人数上限应约为 13.26 亿人天，符合政府的规划目标。最后，本文从加强节水政策、推动数字旅游和设置多个环境监测机制三个角度提出了推进旅游绿色发展的建议。
