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探究能源消费、旅游和经济增长之间的人为关系:经济政策不确定性是否重要?

An investigation into the anthropogenic nexus among consumption of energy, tourism, and economic growth: do economic policy uncertainties matter?

机构信息

Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Bournemouth University, Poole, UK.

Department of Economics, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria.

出版信息

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Jan;28(3):2835-2847. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-10638-x. Epub 2020 Sep 7.

Abstract

Global warming has been a pressing issue for the past decade as various economic activities have been flagged and are expected to reduce emissions. While previous studies have examined the energy consumption-emissions-economic growth nexus in significant detail, attention is yet to be given to the role of economic policy uncertainties and human activities such as tourism in a carbon function. Thus, this study aims to investigate the long-run relationship between energy consumption, tourists' arrivals, economic policy uncertainty, and ecological footprint in the top ten earners from international tourism over the period 1995 to 2015. The fully modified ordinary least square and dynamic ordinary least square estimation techniques and the Dumitrescu and Hurlin causality tests were used in the study. Empirical results suggest that economic policy uncertainties in addition to tourism and energy consumption are drivers of environmental degradation. However, the contribution of energy consumption to ecological footprint is significantly moderated by economic policy uncertainties such that a 1% increase in the latter reduces environmental damage by 0.71%. This study suggests that policy uncertainties matter a great deal for energy and environmental policies. Also, green economic growth is possible if the proper implementation of environmental protection policies can restrict the harmful impact of economic activities on the quality of the environment. Based on the empirical findings, vital energy policy recommendations are suggested.

摘要

全球变暖问题在过去十年中一直备受关注,因为各种经济活动都被标记出来,预计将减少排放。虽然之前的研究已经非常详细地考察了能源消耗-排放-经济增长的关系,但人们尚未关注经济政策不确定性和旅游等人类活动在碳功能中的作用。因此,本研究旨在探讨 1995 年至 2015 年间国际旅游十大收入国的能源消耗、游客入境、经济政策不确定性和生态足迹之间的长期关系。本研究使用了完全修正的普通最小二乘法和动态普通最小二乘法估计技术以及 Dumitrescu 和 Hurlin 因果关系检验。实证结果表明,经济政策不确定性以及旅游和能源消耗是环境恶化的驱动因素。然而,能源消耗对生态足迹的贡献因经济政策不确定性而显著减弱,即后者增加 1%,环境破坏减少 0.71%。本研究表明,政策不确定性对能源和环境政策非常重要。如果能够正确实施环境保护政策,限制经济活动对环境质量的有害影响,绿色经济增长是可能的。根据实证结果,提出了重要的能源政策建议。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1f26/7788040/c54530b03b2d/11356_2020_10638_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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