Wang Jiacheng, Yang Li, Yang Jianchao
Carey Business School, Johns Hopkins University, Washington, DC, 20001, USA.
School of Economics and Management, Chengdu Sport University, Chengdu, 610041, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Apr;30(17):49889-49904. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-25634-0. Epub 2023 Feb 14.
This study aims to investigate the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow, financial development, economic growth, globalization, innovation, and urbanization on the carbon dioxide emissions in China by using long-ran time series dataset from 1970 to 2021 which for the first time used the newly developed dynamic autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) simulation model for results analysis. Dynamic ARDL simulation model removes the shortcomings of the traditional ARDL models by predicting the actual change (positive and negative shocks) in the independent variables and its impact on the main dependent variables by 5000 simulations through graphical representation. The findings of the long-run dynamic ARDL simulations indicate that FDI inflow, globalization, and innovation negatively and significantly impact the environmental degradation while financial development, economic growth, and urbanization cause to increase the environmental degradation in China. Recommendations are suggested based on the findings of this study.
本研究旨在利用1970年至2021年的长期时间序列数据集，调查外国直接投资（FDI）流入、金融发展、经济增长、全球化、创新和城市化对中国二氧化碳排放的影响。该研究首次使用新开发的动态自回归分布滞后（ARDL）模拟模型进行结果分析。动态ARDL模拟模型通过预测自变量的实际变化（正向和负向冲击）及其对主要因变量的影响，通过图形表示进行5000次模拟，从而消除了传统ARDL模型的缺点。长期动态ARDL模拟的结果表明，FDI流入、全球化和创新对环境退化产生负面且显著的影响，而金融发展、经济增长和城市化则导致中国环境退化加剧。基于本研究的结果提出了建议。
