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全球化、经济因素及能源消耗对巴基斯坦二氧化碳排放的影响。

Impact of globalization, economic factors and energy consumption on CO emissions in Pakistan.

作者信息

Khan Muhammad Kamran, Teng Jian-Zhou, Khan Muhammad Imran, Khan Muhammad Owais

机构信息

School of Economics, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, Jilin, China.

School of Economics, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, Jilin, China.

出版信息

Sci Total Environ. 2019 Oct 20;688:424-436. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.065. Epub 2019 Jun 16.

Abstract

This research scrutinizes the impact of globalization, economic factors and energy consumption on CO emissions in Pakistan from 1971 to 2016 by utilizing dynamic ARDL simulations model Jordan and Philips (2018). Dynamic ARDL simulations model has capability to predict the actual positive and negative change in the independent variables and its effect on the dependent variable. The examined results of dynamic ARDL simulations indicates that Energy consumption, financial development, trade, foreign direct investment, economic globalization, social globalization and political globalization have positive effect on CO emissions in Pakistan while urbanization, economic growth and innovation have negative effect on CO emissions in Pakistan while in the short run the examined results of dynamic ARDL simulations indicate that energy consumption, urbanization, economic growth, financial development, economic globalization, social globalization and political globalization have positive effect on CO emissions in Pakistan while trade, innovation and foreign direct investment have negative effect on CO emissions. Based on the results of this study policy implications are suggested for Pakistan.

摘要

本研究利用约旦和菲利普斯(2018年)的动态自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模拟模型,审视了1971年至2016年全球化、经济因素和能源消耗对巴基斯坦二氧化碳排放的影响。动态ARDL模拟模型有能力预测自变量实际的正向和负向变化及其对因变量的影响。动态ARDL模拟的检验结果表明,能源消耗、金融发展、贸易、外国直接投资、经济全球化、社会全球化和政治全球化对巴基斯坦的二氧化碳排放有正向影响,而城市化、经济增长和创新对巴基斯坦的二氧化碳排放有负向影响;在短期内,动态ARDL模拟的检验结果表明,能源消耗、城市化、经济增长、金融发展、经济全球化、社会全球化和政治全球化对巴基斯坦的二氧化碳排放有正向影响,而贸易、创新和外国直接投资对二氧化碳排放有负向影响。基于本研究结果,为巴基斯坦提出了政策建议。

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