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COVID-19 和 HIV/AIDS 合并感染的动力学分析与数值模拟及干预策略

A dynamical analysis and numerical simulation of COVID-19 and HIV/AIDS co-infection with intervention strategies.

机构信息

Department of Mathematics, Natural Science, Debre Berhan University, Debre Berhan, Ethiopia.

出版信息

J Biol Dyn. 2023 Dec;17(1):2175920. doi: 10.1080/17513758.2023.2175920.

Abstract

HIV/AIDS-COVID-19 co-infection is a major public health concern especially in developing countries of the world. This paper presents HIV/AIDS-COVID-19 co-infection to investigate the impact of interventions on its transmission using ordinary differential equation. In the analysis of the model, the solutions are shown to be non-negative and bounded, using next-generation matrix approach the basic reproduction numbers are computed, sufficient conditions for stabilities of equilibrium points are established. The sensitivity analysis showed that transmission rates are the most sensitive parameters that have direct impact on the basic reproduction numbers and protection and treatment rates are more sensitive and have indirect impact to the basic reproduction numbers. Numerical simulations shown that some parameter effects on the transmission of single infections as well as co-infection, and applying the protection rates and treatment rates have effective roles to minimize and also to eradicate the HIV/AIDS-COVID-19 co-infection spreading in the community.

摘要

HIV/AIDS-COVID-19 合并感染是一个主要的公共卫生关注点,特别是在世界上的发展中国家。本文通过常微分方程研究 HIV/AIDS-COVID-19 合并感染,以探讨干预措施对其传播的影响。在模型分析中,使用下一代矩阵方法计算基本再生数,证明了解是非负和有界的。敏感性分析表明,传播率是对基本再生数有直接影响的最敏感参数,保护和治疗率则更为敏感,并对基本再生数有间接影响。数值模拟表明,一些参数对单种感染和合并感染的传播有影响,而采用保护率和治疗率可以有效地降低和消除 HIV/AIDS-COVID-19 合并感染在社区中的传播。

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