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最优控制策略对乙肝病毒和 COVID-19 共同流行传播动力学的影响。

Impacts of optimal control strategies on the HBV and COVID-19 co-epidemic spreading dynamics.

机构信息

Department of Mathematics, Natural Science, Debre Berhan University, Debre Berhan, Ethiopia.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2024 Mar 4;14(1):5328. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-55111-8.

Abstract

Different cross-sectional and clinical research studies investigated that chronic HBV infected individuals' co-epidemic with COVID-19 infection will have more complicated liver infection than HBV infected individuals in the absence of COVID-19 infection. The main objective of this study is to investigate the optimal impacts of four time dependent control strategies on the HBV and COVID-19 co-epidemic transmission using compartmental modeling approach. The qualitative analyses of the model investigated the model solutions non-negativity and boundedness, calculated all the models effective reproduction numbers by applying the next generation operator approach, computed all the models disease-free equilibrium point (s) and endemic equilibrium point (s) and proved their local stability, shown the phenomenon of backward bifurcation by applying the Center Manifold criteria. By applied the Pontryagin's Maximum principle, the study re-formulated and analyzed the co-epidemic model optimal control problem by incorporating four time dependent controlling variables. The study also carried out numerical simulations to verify the model qualitative results and to investigate the optimal impacts of the proposed optimal control strategies. The main finding of the study reveals that implementation of protections, COVID-19 vaccine, and treatment strategies simultaneously is the most effective optimal control strategy to tackle the HBV and COVID-19 co-epidemic spreading in the community.

摘要

不同的横断面和临床研究表明,慢性乙型肝炎病毒(HBV)感染者合并感染 COVID-19 比未合并感染 COVID-19 的 HBV 感染者肝脏感染更为复杂。本研究的主要目的是应用房室模型方法探讨四种时变控制策略对 HBV 和 COVID-19 共同流行传播的最佳影响。模型的定性分析研究了模型解的非负性和有界性,应用下一代算子方法计算了所有模型的有效繁殖数,计算了所有模型的无病平衡点和地方平衡点,并证明了它们的局部稳定性,应用中心流形准则展示了反向分支现象。通过应用庞特里亚金最大值原理,本研究通过纳入四个时变控制变量重新制定和分析了共同流行模型的最优控制问题。研究还进行了数值模拟,以验证模型的定性结果,并研究所提出的最优控制策略的最优影响。研究的主要发现表明,同时实施保护、COVID-19 疫苗和治疗策略是应对社区中 HBV 和 COVID-19 共同流行传播的最有效最优控制策略。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fcef/10912759/a7b6d26cfa80/41598_2024_55111_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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