School of Applied Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, China.
School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, 100044, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Apr;30(17):50096-50109. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-25885-x. Epub 2023 Feb 15.
The Clean Heating Policy aims to solve the problems of excessive energy consumption and severe air pollution caused by central heating in northern China. Whether this policy can effectively reduce carbon emissions remains unexplored. Using panel data representing 65 cities in northern China from 2010 to 2019, this paper constructs a dynamic spatial DID model to empirically study the carbon reduction effect of the Clean Heating Policy and its influence channels. The results are summarized as follows. First, the Clean Heating Policy can significantly reduce carbon emissions, and this conclusion holds after multiple robustness tests. The policy has a lag effect, but its spatial spillover effect and long-term effect are not significant. Second, the carbon reduction effect of the Clean Heating Policy is mainly achieved by optimizing the energy structure and improving the thermal efficiency of heat consumer terminals. Third, the carbon reduction effect varies by city and emission field. It is significant only in low-subsidy cities, high-carbon cities, and household fields. Fourth, there is a synergistic reduction relationship between the Clean Heating Policy and the low-carbon city policy. Based on the results of this paper, we propose policy implications, such as promoting policies in multiple ways and improving subsidy efficiency, and provide a reference for other countries.
清洁供暖政策旨在解决中国北方集中供暖所导致的能源消耗过度和空气污染严重的问题。该政策能否有效减少碳排放仍有待探讨。本文利用 2010-2019 年中国北方 65 个城市的面板数据，构建动态空间 DID 模型，实证研究了清洁供暖政策的碳减排效应及其影响渠道。结果表明：第一，清洁供暖政策能够显著降低碳排放，且该结论在经过多次稳健性检验后依然成立；该政策具有滞后效应，但空间溢出效应和长期效应不显著。第二，清洁供暖政策的碳减排效应主要通过优化能源结构和提高热用户终端的热力效率来实现。第三，清洁供暖政策的碳减排效应因城市和排放场而异，仅在低补贴城市、高碳城市和家庭领域显著。第四，清洁供暖政策与低碳城市政策之间存在协同减排关系。基于本文的研究结果，我们提出了多种政策推动方式和提高补贴效率等政策建议，为其他国家提供了参考。
