Hoang Long Phi, Pot Miriam, Tran Dung Duc, Ho Loc Huu, Park Edward
Water Systems and Global Change Group, Wageningen University, PO. Box 47, 6700 AA, Wageningen, the Netherlands; VNU School of Interdisciplinary Studies, Vietnam National University, 144 Xuan Thuy Str., Hanoi, Viet Nam.
ResilienceBV, Bevrijdingsstraat 38, 6703 AA Wageningen, the Netherlands.
Environ Res. 2023 May 1;224:115423. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.115423. Epub 2023 Feb 14.
This research assesses the adaptive capacity of farmers in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta's floodplains (VMD) with respect to hydrological changes. Currently, climate change and socio-economic developments induce extreme- and diminishing floods, which in turn increase farmers' vulnerability. This research assesses farmers' adaptive capacity to hydrological changes using two prevalent farming systems: high dykes featuring triple-crop rice farming and low dykes where fields are left fallow during the flood season. We examine (1) farmers' perceptions on a changing flood regime and their current vulnerabilities and (2) farmers' adaptive capacity through five sustainability capitals. Methods include a literature review and qualitative interviews with farmers. Results show that extreme floods are becoming less frequent and damaging, depending on arrival time, depth, residence time, and flow velocity. In extreme floods, farmers' adaptive capacity is generally strong, and only low dyke farmers experience damage. As for diminishing floods, which is an emerging phenomenon, the overall adaptive capacity of farmers is remarkably weaker and varies between high- and low dyke farmers. Financial capital is lower for low dyke farmers due to their double-crop rice system, and natural capital is low for both farmer groups due to a decrease in soil- and water quality, affecting yields and increasing investment costs. Farmers also struggle with an unstable rice market due to strong fluctuating prices for seeds, fertilizers, and other inputs. We conclude that both high- and low dyke farmers have to cope with new challenges, including fluctuating flood patterns and the depletion of natural resources. Increasing farmers resilience should focus on exploring better crop varieties, adjusting crop calendars, and shifting to less water-intensive crops.
本研究评估了越南湄公河三角洲洪泛区（VMD）农民针对水文变化的适应能力。当前，气候变化和社会经济发展引发了极端洪水和洪水减少的情况，进而增加了农民的脆弱性。本研究利用两种常见的耕作系统评估农民对水文变化的适应能力：一种是采用三季稻种植的高堤坝系统，另一种是在洪水季节休耕的低堤坝系统。我们考察了（1）农民对不断变化的洪水状况的认知以及他们当前的脆弱性，以及（2）农民通过五种可持续性资本所具备的适应能力。研究方法包括文献综述和对农民的定性访谈。结果表明，极端洪水的发生频率和破坏程度在降低，这取决于洪水的到达时间、深度、停留时间和流速。在极端洪水中，农民的适应能力总体较强，只有低堤坝地区的农民遭受损失。至于洪水减少这一新兴现象，农民的整体适应能力明显较弱，且在高堤坝和低堤坝地区的农民之间存在差异。由于采用双季稻种植系统，低堤坝地区农民的金融资本较低，而由于土壤和水质下降影响产量并增加投资成本，两个农民群体的自然资本都较低。由于种子、化肥和其他投入品价格波动剧烈，农民还面临着不稳定的大米市场。我们得出结论，高堤坝和低堤坝地区的农民都必须应对新的挑战，包括洪水模式的波动和自然资源的枯竭。增强农民的恢复力应侧重于探索更好的作物品种、调整作物种植时间表以及转向耗水量较少的作物。
