College of Humanities and Development Studies (COHD), China Agriculture University, Beijing, 100083, People's Republic of China.
Centre for Climate Research and Development, COMSATS University Islamabad, Islamabad, 45550, Pakistan.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Jan;28(4):4229-4244. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-10758-4. Epub 2020 Sep 16.
In developing countries like Pakistan, agriculture constitutes the primary source of support for the majority of rural and the adjacent urban population. Despite the large part it plays in the economy, it faces significant challenges caused by climate change, such as rising temperatures, floods, droughts, and yield losses. In Pakistan, rice, which is the second most essential food crop and livelihood source for the millions of farm households, is facing significant yield reduction due to climate change. It is pertinent to consider the vulnerabilities of farm households and related factors to create a climatic-resilient farming system. The current study is aimed at mapping the vulnerability of rice-growing communities of Punjab province while considering climatic challenges beyond temperatures and rainfall changes. The Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) was calculated for four rice-growing districts of Punjab province using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's three-indicator approach (sensitivity, exposition, and adaptive capacity). According to the results, farmers in the study area are highly vulnerable to climate change (CCVI 0.81). Specifically, the indices of vulnerability components showed that farmers have a high level of exposure (EVI 0.72) and susceptibility (SVI 0.59) to the climatic uncertainties with the least adaptive capacity (AVI 0.50). Further, the vulnerability analysis across different rice-growing regions showed that farmers, particularly in the low-yield region, are more vulnerable (EVI 0.73, SVI 0.61, AVI 0.49, CCVI 0.85) than the farmers in the high-yield region (EVI 0.71, SVI 0.58, AVI 0.51, CCVI 0.78). These findings imply that regional priority must be given despite the difference in farm performance to reduce production losses. Besides, climate-smart adaptation initiatives should be facilitated at the farm and regional levels through the implementation of appropriate policies and investment plans.
在巴基斯坦等发展中国家，农业是大多数农村和周边城市人口的主要支柱。尽管农业在经济中占有很大比重，但它面临着气候变化带来的巨大挑战，如气温上升、洪水、干旱和产量损失。在巴基斯坦，水稻是仅次于小麦的第二大主要粮食作物，也是数百万农户的主要生计来源，由于气候变化，水稻产量正面临严重下降。考虑到农户的脆弱性和相关因素，建立一个具有气候适应能力的农业系统是当务之急。本研究旨在绘制旁遮普省水稻种植社区的脆弱性地图，同时考虑超出气温和降雨变化的气候挑战。利用政府间气候变化专门委员会的三指标方法（敏感性、暴露度和适应能力），计算了旁遮普省四个水稻种植区的气候变化脆弱性指数（CCVI）。结果表明，研究区域的农民极易受到气候变化的影响（CCVI 为 0.81）。具体而言，脆弱性组成部分指数表明，农民对气候不确定性的暴露度（EVI 为 0.72）和易感性（SVI 为 0.59）较高，适应能力（AVI 为 0.50）最低。此外，不同水稻种植区的脆弱性分析表明，特别是在低产地区的农民比高产地区的农民更为脆弱（EVI 为 0.73、SVI 为 0.61、AVI 为 0.49、CCVI 为 0.85），（EVI 为 0.71、SVI 为 0.58、AVI 为 0.51、CCVI 为 0.78）。这些发现意味着，尽管农场绩效存在差异，但必须给予区域优先地位，以减少生产损失。此外，应通过实施适当的政策和投资计划，在农场和区域两级促进气候智能适应倡议。
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