Corradin Stefano, Schwaab Bernd
European Central Bank, Germany.
Eur Econ Rev. 2023 Apr;153:104402. doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104402. Epub 2023 Feb 14.
We provide a novel modeling framework to decompose euro area sovereign bond yields into five distinct components: ( ) expected future short-term risk-free rates and a term premium, ( ) a default risk premium, ( ) redenomination risk premium, ( ) liquidity risk premium, and ( ) segmentation (convenience) premium. Identification is achieved by considering sovereign yields jointly with other rates, including sovereign credit default swap spreads with and without redenomination as a credit event trigger. We illustrate our model by studying yield components embedded in German, French, Italian, and Spanish sovereign bonds, before and after the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, and by examining the impact of European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy and European Union (EU) fiscal policy announcements in response to the pandemic. We find that all five risk premia became sizable following the onset of the pandemic, and that both monetary and fiscal policy announcements had a pronounced effect on yields, mostly through default, redenomination, and segmentation (convenience) premia.
我们提供了一个新颖的建模框架,将欧元区主权债券收益率分解为五个不同的组成部分:( )预期未来短期无风险利率和期限溢价,( )违约风险溢价,( )重新计价风险溢价,( )流动性风险溢价,以及( )分割(便利)溢价。通过将主权债券收益率与其他利率(包括以重新计价作为信用事件触发因素和不以此作为触发因素的主权信用违约互换利差)结合起来进行分析,实现了各组成部分的识别。我们通过研究2020年新冠疫情爆发前后德国、法国、意大利和西班牙主权债券中包含的收益率组成部分,并考察欧洲央行(ECB)货币政策和欧盟(EU)财政政策应对疫情的公告的影响,来说明我们的模型。我们发现,疫情爆发后,所有五个风险溢价都变得相当可观,而且货币政策和财政政策公告对收益率都有显著影响,主要是通过违约、重新计价和分割(便利)溢价来实现的。