Zheng Huanhuan
Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, Singapore.
J Int Econ. 2023 Jul;143:103766. doi: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103766. Epub 2023 Apr 25.
We utilize the global natural experiment created by the COVID-19 outbreak to identify sovereign borrowing capacity in time of need and its determinants. First, we demonstrate that the pandemic creates exogeneous shocks to sovereign borrowing needs-governments borrowed more when hit by more severe pandemic shocks. Second, we show that credible fiscal rules enhance sovereign borrowing capacity, while unsustainable debts in terms of high debt-to-GDP ratio, rollover risk, and sovereign default risk weaken it. Third, we find that, in response to the same pandemic shock, sovereign spreads increase more in emerging economies than advanced economies though the former borrow less during the pandemic. Finally, further analysis reveals that pegged exchange rate regimes, open capital accounts, and monetary dependence improve emerging economies' borrowing capacity.
我们利用新冠疫情爆发所形成的全球自然实验，来确定在有需要时的主权借款能力及其决定因素。首先，我们证明疫情对主权借款需求产生了外部冲击——受疫情冲击越严重，政府借款就越多。其次，我们表明可信的财政规则会增强主权借款能力，而高债务与国内生产总值比率、展期风险和主权违约风险方面不可持续的债务则会削弱这种能力。第三，我们发现，面对相同的疫情冲击，新兴经济体的主权利差增幅比发达经济体更大，尽管前者在疫情期间借款较少。最后，进一步分析表明，钉住汇率制度、开放资本账户和货币依赖会提高新兴经济体的借款能力。
