Reconciling crop production and ecological conservation under uncertainty: A fuzzy credibility-based multi-objective simulation-optimization model.

To cope with the problems of agricultural water conflicts and secondary soil salinization in arid regions, a fuzzy credibility-based multi-objective simulation-optimization model is proposed for optimizing irrigation water allocation and crop area planning under uncertainty. This model combines simulation module of enabling to quantify daily physical process of water-salt movement among soil water, crop root zone and groundwater aquifers, optimization module of managing water resources and fuzzy credibility-constrained programming into a general framework. It's applied to a case study in the Jiefangzha Irrigation Subarea in Hetao Irrigation District, Northwest China. Three objectives encompassing maximizing net economic benefits, maximizing nutritional water productivity and minimizing carbon emissions from agricultural system are interconnected through decision variables. Four credibility scenarios of fuzzy constrains including β = 0.6 to 0.9 are presented for obtaining decision-making solutions. Through NSGA-III, such a high-dimensional multi-objective problem is solved. This study uses the multi-objective constraint-handling strategy to handle constraints, which exploits the effective information within infeasible solutions. Moreover, it emphasizes the importance of soil water-salt movement processes in determining optimal solutions and helps decision makers weigh the system outputs and risk level of violating constraints. Results illustrate that when β increases from 0.6 to 0.9, net economic benefit decreases from 1.742 × 10 Yuan to 1.706 × 10 Yuan, nutritional water productivity decreases from 9136.0 kcal/m to 8819.6 kcal/m, and carbon emissions increase from 439.6 × 10 kg. C to 441.6 × 10 kg.C, which shows that an increasing credibility level leads to lower system benefits and conservative system outputs. The results can provide valuable information for managing irrigation water resources and controlling salinity accumulation. Furthermore, dynamic decisions related to water-salt movement processes can be readily generated. These findings show that the developed approach is globally applicable for managing irrigation water in arid and semiarid regions that face similar problems.