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利用斯福尔扎家族死亡登记簿中的数据对 1480 年米兰死亡事件进行时空分析。

Spatial and Temporal Analyses of the Event of Death for 1480 in Milan Using the Data Contained in the Sforza's Registers of the Dead.

机构信息

Department of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences (DIBIC), University of Milan, 20157 Milan, Italy.

Data Science and Research Center (DSRC), University of Milan, 20157 Milan, Italy.

出版信息

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023 Feb 4;20(4):2783. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20042783.

Abstract

Historical death registration was conducted primarily to assess the presence of plague. The was one of Europe's first registers with many socio-demographical details. In this work, we consider 1480 to make spatial and temporal analyses of the event of death to find possible explanations about the events' distribution and the events' trend over time. The spatial analyses involved Moran's I, the LISA, and the heatmaps; the temporal analysis applied the Durbin-Watson test. All the analyses were conducted separately on all subjects (1813), children (765), and adults (1046). (districts) were considered for spatial analysis. Moran's I and the Durbin Watson test were significant on all subjects and children's analyses, and the LISA showed the same results for those groups. Children may significantly impact the distribution of death and the trend over time. At least half of the children were 0 years old, and survival in the very first childhood period was closely linked to the family, so that it could be a proxy of the conditions of an area.

摘要

历史死亡登记主要用于评估鼠疫的存在。该登记册是欧洲最早的登记册之一,包含许多社会人口学细节。在这项工作中,我们考虑了 1480 年,对死亡事件进行时空分析,以寻找关于事件分布和随时间变化趋势的可能解释。空间分析涉及 Moran's I、LISA 和热图;时间分析应用了 Durbin-Watson 检验。所有分析都是针对所有受试者(1813 人)、儿童(765 人)和成人(1046 人)分别进行的。对 (区)进行了空间分析。在所有受试者和儿童的分析中,Moran's I 和 Durbin-Watson 检验均具有统计学意义,LISA 也得出了相同的结果。儿童可能会显著影响死亡的分布和随时间的趋势。至少有一半的儿童为 0 岁,他们在非常早期的童年时期的生存与家庭密切相关,因此可以作为该地区条件的一个指标。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4984/9956338/5efdb4d74b83/ijerph-20-02783-g001.jpg

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