The Impact of Environmental Regulation on Firm Performance: Evidence from the Pulp and Paper Industry in China.

In areas with serious pollution problems, the government designates a special emission limit (SEL) for pollution control and environmental protection in China. This paper examines the effects of chemical oxygen demand (COD) SEL on firms' production activity and market performance in the pulp and paper industry in the Lake Tai area in China. Using firm-level data, we employ a difference-in-differences strategy and find that SEL has a negative impact on the production scale, profitability, and market size of the regulated firms, while showing no significant impact on firm exports. The heterogeneity tests suggest that the impact of SEL on production and market performance varies with firm ownership, firm size, and target market. The reallocation effect of production shifts extra production from exited firms to existing firms, which explains the expansion of production scale and market size for SOEs and large-sized regulated firms. Compared with the decline of production scale, the inventory alleviation effect reduces the negative impact of stricter environmental regulation on firm performance.