Division of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92039, USA.
Veterans Medical Research Foundation, San Diego, CA 92161, USA.
Viruses. 2023 Feb 5;15(2):446. doi: 10.3390/v15020446.
The association between nasopharyngeal (NP) SARS-CoV-2 viral loads and clinical outcomes remains debated. Here, we examined the factors that might predict the NP viral load and the role of the viral load as a predictor of clinical outcomes. A convenience sample of 955 positive remnant NP swab eluent samples collected during routine care between 18 November 2020 and 26 September 2021 was cataloged and a chart review was performed. For non-duplicate samples with available demographic and clinical data (i.e., non-employees), an aliquot of eluent was sent for a droplet digital PCR quantification of the SARS-CoV-2 viral load. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the clinical predictors of NP viral loads and the predictors of COVID-19-related clinical outcomes. Samples and data from 698 individuals were included in the final analysis. The sample cohort had a mean age of 50 years (range: 19-91); 86.6% were male and 76.3% were unvaccinated. The NP viral load was higher in people with respiratory symptoms ( = 0.0004) and fevers ( = 0.0006). In the predictive models for the clinical outcomes, the NP viral load approached a significance as a predictor for in-hospital mortality. In conclusion, the NP viral load did not appear to be a strong predictor of moderate-to-severe disease in the pre-Delta and Delta phases of the pandemic, but was predictive of symptomatic diseases and approached a significance for in-hospital mortality, providing support to the thesis that early viral control prevents the progression of disease.
鼻咽(NP)SARS-CoV-2 病毒载量与临床结局之间的关系仍存在争议。在这里,我们研究了可能预测 NP 病毒载量的因素以及病毒载量作为临床结局预测因子的作用。对 2020 年 11 月 18 日至 2021 年 9 月 26 日期间常规护理中收集的 955 个阳性剩余 NP 拭子洗脱液样本的便利样本进行了编目,并进行了图表审查。对于具有可用人口统计学和临床数据的非重复样本(即非员工),将洗脱液的等分试样用于进行 SARS-CoV-2 病毒载量的液滴数字 PCR 定量。进行单变量和多变量分析,以确定 NP 病毒载量的临床预测因子以及与 COVID-19 相关的临床结局的预测因子。最终分析包括 698 个人的样本和数据。样本队列的平均年龄为 50 岁(范围:19-91);86.6%为男性,76.3%未接种疫苗。有呼吸道症状(=0.0004)和发热(=0.0006)的人 NP 病毒载量更高。在预测临床结局的模型中,NP 病毒载量接近作为住院死亡率的预测因子的显著性。总之,在大流行的 Delta 前和 Delta 阶段,NP 病毒载量似乎不是中重度疾病的强预测因子,但与有症状疾病相关,并接近住院死亡率的显著性,这支持了早期病毒控制可预防疾病进展的论点。