Kodell R L, Gaylor D W, Chen J J
Biometry Staff, National Center for Toxicological Research, Jefferson, Arkansas 72079.
Risk Anal. 1987 Sep;7(3):339-45. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1987.tb00469.x.
The effect of using the average dose rate over a lifetime as a representative measure of exposure to carcinogens is investigated by comparing the true theoretical multistage intermittent-dosing lifetime low-dose excess risk to the theoretical multistage continuous-dosing lifetime risk corresponding to the average lifetime dose rate. It is concluded that low-dose risk estimates based on the average lifetime dose rate may overestimate the true risk by several orders of magnitude, but that they never underestimate the true risk by more than a factor of k/r, where k is the total number of stages in the multistage model and r is the number of stages that are dose-related.
通过比较真实的理论多阶段间歇给药终生低剂量超额风险与对应于平均终生剂量率的理论多阶段连续给药终生风险,研究了使用终生平均剂量率作为致癌物暴露的代表性测量指标的影响。得出的结论是,基于平均终生剂量率的低剂量风险估计可能会将真实风险高估几个数量级,但它们绝不会将真实风险低估超过k/r倍,其中k是多阶段模型中的阶段总数,r是与剂量相关的阶段数。