Research Center for Contemporary Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
Environ Sci Technol. 2023 Mar 14;57(10):4061-4070. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.2c08326. Epub 2023 Mar 2.
Current National Determined Contributions require strengthening to achieve the 2-degree target set in the Paris Agreement. Here, we contrast two mitigation effort strengthening ideas: the "burden-sharing" principle, which requires each region to meet the mitigation goal through domestic mitigation with no international cooperation, and the cooperation focused "cost effective conditional-enhancing" principle, which combines domestic mitigation with carbon trading and low-carbon investment transfer. By applying a burden-sharing model covering several equity principles, we analyze the 2030 mitigation burden for each region, then the energy system model generates the results for the carbon trade and the investment transfer for the conditional-enhancing plan, and an air pollution cobenefit model is used to analyze the cobenefit on air quality and public health. Here, we show that the conditional-enhancing plan leads to an international carbon trading volume of 339.2 billion USD per year and reduces the marginal mitigation cost of the quota-purchase regions by 25%-32%. Furthermore, the international cooperation incentivizes a faster and deeper decarbonization in developing and emerging regions, raising the air pollution health cobenefits by 18% to 731,000 avoided premature deaths annually compared to the "burden-sharing" principle, amounting to a reduction in the life value loss of 131 billion dollars per year.
当前的国家自主贡献需要加强，以实现《巴黎协定》设定的 2 度目标。在这里，我们对比了两种强化减排努力的思路：“负担共担”原则，要求每个地区都通过国内减排来实现减排目标，不进行国际合作；以及合作重点的“成本效益条件增强”原则，将国内减排与碳交易和低碳投资转移相结合。通过应用涵盖几个公平原则的负担共担模型，我们分析了每个地区 2030 年的减排负担，然后能源系统模型为有条件增强计划生成碳交易和投资转移的结果，以及空气污染协同效益模型用于分析空气质量和公共健康的协同效益。在这里，我们表明，有条件增强计划导致每年国际碳交易量为 3392 亿美元，并将配额购买地区的边际减排成本降低 25%-32%。此外，国际合作激励发展中地区和新兴地区更快、更深地脱碳，与“负担共担”原则相比，每年将空气污染健康协同效益提高 18%至 731,000 例避免的过早死亡，相当于每年减少 1310 亿美元的生命价值损失。
