UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK.
UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK.
Lancet Planet Health. 2021 Feb;5(2):e74-e83. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30249-7.
nationally determined contributions (NDCs) serve to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement of staying "well below 2°C", which could also yield substantial health co-benefits in the process. However, existing NDC commitments are inadequate to achieve this goal. Placing health as a key focus of the NDCs could present an opportunity to increase ambition and realise health co-benefits. We modelled scenarios to analyse the health co-benefits of NDCs for the year 2040 for nine representative countries (ie, Brazil, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, South Africa, the UK, and the USA) that were selected for their contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions and their global or regional influence.
Modelling the energy, food and agriculture, and transport sectors, and mortality related to risk factors of air pollution, diet, and physical activity, we analysed the health co-benefits of existing NDCs and related policies (ie, the current pathways scenario) for 2040 in nine countries around the world. We compared these health co-benefits with two alternative scenarios, one consistent with the goal of the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (ie, the sustainable pathways scenario), and one in line with the sustainable pathways scenario, but also placing health as a central focus of the policies (ie, the health in all climate policies scenario).
Compared with the current pathways scenario, the sustainable pathways scenario resulted in an annual reduction of 1·18 million air pollution-related deaths, 5·86 million diet-related deaths, and 1·15 million deaths due to physical inactivity, across the nine countries, by 2040. Adopting the more ambitious health in all climate policies scenario would result in a further reduction of 462 000 annual deaths attributable to air pollution, 572 000 annual deaths attributable to diet, and 943 000 annual deaths attributable to physical inactivity. These benefits were attributable to the mitigation of direct greenhouse gas emissions and the commensurate actions that reduce exposure to harmful pollutants, as well as improved diets and safe physical activity.
A greater consideration of health in the NDCs and climate change mitigation policies has the potential to yield considerable health benefits as well as achieve the "well below 2°C" commitment across a range of regional and economic contexts.
This work was in part funded through an unrestricted grant from the Wellcome Trust (award number 209734/Z/17/Z) and supported by an Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council grant (grant number EP/R035288/1).
国家自主贡献（NDCs）旨在实现《巴黎协定》将全球气温升幅控制在“远低于 2°C”的目标，这一过程中也能带来大量的健康协同效益。然而，现有的 NDC 承诺不足以实现这一目标。将健康作为 NDC 的重点关注领域，可能会增加雄心并实现健康协同效益。我们构建了情景模型，分析了 9 个有代表性国家（巴西、中国、德国、印度、印度尼西亚、尼日利亚、南非、英国和美国）2040 年 NDC 的健康协同效益，这些国家的选择依据是其对全球温室气体排放的贡献及其在全球或区域的影响力。
通过对能源、食品和农业以及交通部门进行建模，并对与空气污染、饮食和身体活动相关的风险因素导致的死亡率进行建模，我们分析了全球 9 个国家现有 NDC 及相关政策（即当前路径情景）对 2040 年的健康协同效益。我们将这些健康协同效益与两种替代情景进行了比较，一种情景与《巴黎协定》和可持续发展目标的目标一致（即可持续路径情景），另一种情景与可持续路径情景一致，但也将健康作为政策的核心重点（即健康纳入所有气候政策情景）。
与当前路径情景相比，可持续路径情景到 2040 年，9 个国家每年因空气污染相关疾病导致的死亡人数减少了 118 万，因饮食相关疾病导致的死亡人数减少了 586 万，因缺乏身体活动导致的死亡人数减少了 115 万。如果采用更具雄心的健康纳入所有气候政策情景，每年因空气污染导致的死亡人数将进一步减少 46.2 万，因饮食导致的死亡人数将减少 57.2 万，因缺乏身体活动导致的死亡人数将减少 94.3 万。这些效益归因于直接温室气体排放的减少以及减少有害污染物暴露的相应措施，以及改善饮食和安全身体活动。
在 NDC 和气候变化缓解政策中更多地考虑健康问题，有可能在一系列区域和经济背景下带来可观的健康效益，并实现“远低于 2°C”的承诺。
这项工作部分由惠康信托基金会（授予编号 209734/Z/17/Z）的一项无限制赠款资助，并得到了工程和物理科学研究理事会（授予编号 EP/R035288/1）的资助。
