Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Missoula, Montana, USA.
Management of Complex Systems, University of California Merced, Merced, California, USA.
Glob Chang Biol. 2023 May;29(10):2681-2696. doi: 10.1111/gcb.16629. Epub 2023 Mar 7.
Species across the planet are shifting their ranges to track suitable climate conditions in response to climate change. Given that protected areas have higher quality habitat and often harbor higher levels of biodiversity compared to unprotected lands, it is often assumed that protected areas can serve as steppingstones for species undergoing climate-induced range shifts. However, there are several factors that may impede successful range shifts among protected areas, including the distance that must be traveled, unfavorable human land uses and climate conditions along potential movement routes, and lack of analogous climates. Through a species-agnostic lens, we evaluate these factors across the global terrestrial protected area network as measures of climate connectivity, which is defined as the ability of a landscape to facilitate or impede climate-induced movement. We found that over half of protected land area and two-thirds of the number of protected units across the globe are at risk of climate connectivity failure, casting doubt on whether many species can successfully undergo climate-induced range shifts among protected areas. Consequently, protected areas are unlikely to serve as steppingstones for a large number of species under a warming climate. As species disappear from protected areas without commensurate immigration of species suited to the emerging climate (due to climate connectivity failure), many protected areas may be left with a depauperate suite of species under climate change. Our findings are highly relevant given recent pledges to conserve 30% of the planet by 2030 (30 × 30), underscore the need for innovative land management strategies that allow for species range shifts, and suggest that assisted colonization may be necessary to promote species that are adapted to the emerging climate.
全球范围内的物种正在迁徙以适应气候变化带来的适宜气候条件。由于保护区的生境质量通常更高，并且往往拥有更高水平的生物多样性，因此人们通常认为保护区可以成为物种因气候变化而发生的迁徙的踏脚石。然而，有几个因素可能会阻碍保护区之间的成功迁徙，包括必须迁徙的距离、潜在迁徙路线上不利的人类土地利用和气候条件，以及缺乏类似的气候条件。通过一种不考虑物种的视角，我们评估了这些因素在全球陆地保护区网络中的重要性，将其作为气候连通性的衡量标准，即景观促进或阻碍气候驱动的运动的能力。我们发现，超过一半的保护区面积和全球三分之二的保护区单元面临气候连通性失败的风险，这使得人们怀疑许多物种是否能够成功地在保护区之间进行因气候变化而导致的迁徙。因此，在气候变暖的情况下，保护区不太可能成为许多物种的踏脚石。由于物种从保护区消失，而没有适合新兴气候的物种随之迁入（由于气候连通性失败），许多保护区可能会在气候变化下只剩下一组生物多样性较少的物种。鉴于最近承诺到 2030 年保护地球上 30%的土地（30×30），我们的研究结果具有重要意义，突显了需要创新的土地管理策略，以允许物种迁徙，并表明需要进行辅助殖民，以促进适应新兴气候的物种。
