Gomes Letícia Braga, Gonçalves Gabriela Ribeiro, Velazco Santiago José Elías, de Moraes Kauê Felippe, Marques Neto Osvaldo Pimentel, Santos Fernanda da Silva, Santos Marcos Pérsio Dantas, Lima Marcela Guimarães Moreira
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia, Instituto de Ciência Biológicas, Universidade Federal do Pará, Belém, Brazil.
Laboratório de Biogeografia da Conservação e Macroecologia, Instituto de Ciência Biológicas, Universidade Federal do Pará, Belém, Brazil.
Sci Rep. 2024 Dec 28;14(1):31356. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-82717-9.
The negative effects of land-use changes on biodiversity significantly contribute to climate change. Primates are among the animals most affected by these changes, because of their high dependence on forest cover where a lack of forest connectivity can limit their dispersal and segregate their populations. In this sense, protected areas (PAs) are crucial for conserving endangered primates, especially endemic species. Using species distribution models, we assessed the impact of climate change and deforestation on the geographic distribution of 35 endangered Brazilian primates. We also evaluated the potential of PAs to retain suitable habitats for primate species under current conditions (baseline) and four future climate scenarios (optimistic and pessimistic, both for the periods 2041-2060 and 2061-2080), as well as the capacity of PAs to preserve species' geographic representation both now and in the future. Our findings indicate that most primate taxa would experience a significant loss of suitable area (> 90%) in both pessimistic and optimistic scenarios. For future scenarios, the loss could exceed 98% for 10 taxa, particularly Amazonian species. Regarding PAs potential to retain suitable areas for maintaining the richness of threatened primates, only 8.6% harbor more species than expected by chance (1-6 taxa) in the baseline conditions, with a decrease in future scenarios. Results suggest that taxa already threatened with extinction are inadequately protected by PAs in the baseline conditions and even less so in future scenarios. Given the restricted geographic distribution and current population decline for most taxa, we emphasize the need to increase the number of PAs to ensure population viability and prevent future extinction.
土地利用变化对生物多样性的负面影响是气候变化的重要促成因素。灵长类动物是受这些变化影响最大的动物之一，因为它们高度依赖森林覆盖，而森林连通性的缺乏会限制它们的扩散并使它们的种群隔离。从这个意义上说，保护区对于保护濒危灵长类动物，特别是特有物种至关重要。我们使用物种分布模型评估了气候变化和森林砍伐对35种濒危巴西灵长类动物地理分布的影响。我们还评估了在当前条件（基线）和四种未来气候情景（乐观和悲观，均针对2041 - 2060年和2061 - 2080年这两个时期）下，保护区保留灵长类物种适宜栖息地的潜力，以及保护区现在和未来保护物种地理代表性的能力。我们的研究结果表明，在悲观和乐观情景下，大多数灵长类分类群都将经历适宜面积的显著损失（>90%）。对于未来情景，10个分类群的损失可能超过98%，特别是亚马逊物种。关于保护区保留适宜区域以维持受威胁灵长类动物丰富度的潜力，在基线条件下，只有8.6%的保护区拥有比随机预期更多的物种（1 - 6个分类群），在未来情景中这一比例会下降。结果表明，在基线条件下，已经面临灭绝威胁的分类群在保护区中没有得到充分保护，在未来情景中更是如此。鉴于大多数分类群的地理分布受限且当前种群数量下降，我们强调需要增加保护区数量，以确保种群的生存能力并防止未来的灭绝。
