Cimatti Marta, Mezzanotte Valerio, Heikkinen Risto K, Hällfors Maria H, Karger Dirk Nikolaus, Di Marco Moreno
Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin", Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy.
Nature Solutions, Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki, Finland.
Glob Chang Biol. 2025 Jun;31(6):e70261. doi: 10.1111/gcb.70261.
All ecosystems are affected by climate change, but differences in the pace of change will render some areas more exposed than others. Such spatial patterns of risk are important when assessing the continued functionality of protected area (PA) networks or planning for their expansion. Europe is undertaking an expansion of the PA network to cover 30% of its land and sea surface by 2030, but this must account for climate risk. Here, we estimate four metrics of future climate risk across Europe: local velocity, analog velocity, magnitude, and residence time, and assess the level of climate exposure of European PAs vs. nonprotected control sites. We also evaluate the intensity of climate risks on > 1000 European species of conservation concern associated with Natura 2000 sites. Our results show large spatial differences in climate change exposure across Europe, with a faster pace and farther shifts in the Boreal, Steppic, and Pannonian regions but slower changes in the Mediterranean, Alpine, Arctic, and Macaronesia regions. The magnitude of climate change was higher for the Arctic, Alpine, and Mediterranean regions, implying large local differences between present and future climate. These spatial risk patterns were largely consistent across scenarios, but with up to three times higher risk under the most pessimistic vs. the most optimistic scenario. Large variation in climate exposure for species of conservation concern was revealed, including 11 species that are highly dependent on Natura 2000 sites and predicted to experience rapid climate change. Our results provide guidance for managing European PAs and expanding their coverage by pinpointing areas offering more stable climates. We emphasize the need for connectivity across the network to support species adaptation via range shifting. This is especially the case in areas facing high climate change magnitude but low velocity, implying that climate conditions similar to current ones will be found nearby.
所有生态系统都受到气候变化的影响，但变化速度的差异会使一些地区比其他地区面临更大的风险。在评估保护区（PA）网络的持续功能或规划其扩张时，这种风险的空间格局很重要。欧洲正在扩大PA网络，到2030年将其陆地和海洋面积的30%纳入其中，但这必须考虑到气候风险。在此，我们估计了欧洲未来气候风险的四个指标：局部速度、相似速度、幅度和停留时间，并评估了欧洲PA与非保护对照地点的气候暴露水平。我们还评估了与“自然2000”站点相关的1000多种欧洲受保护物种所面临的气候风险强度。我们的结果显示，欧洲各地的气候变化暴露存在很大的空间差异，北方、干草原和潘诺尼亚地区的变化速度更快、变化幅度更大，而地中海、阿尔卑斯、北极和马卡罗尼西亚地区的变化则较慢。北极、阿尔卑斯和地中海地区的气候变化幅度更大，这意味着当前和未来气候之间存在很大的局部差异。这些空间风险模式在不同情景下基本一致，但在最悲观情景下的风险比最乐观情景下高出两倍。研究揭示了受保护物种的气候暴露存在很大差异，包括11种高度依赖“自然2000”站点且预计将经历快速气候变化的物种。我们的结果通过确定气候更稳定的地区，为管理欧洲PA及其扩大覆盖范围提供了指导。我们强调网络连通性的必要性，以支持物种通过范围转移进行适应。在气候变化幅度大但速度慢的地区尤其如此，这意味着在附近可以找到与当前类似的气候条件。
