Pfizer Inc., 500 Arcola Rd., Collegeville, PA, 19426, USA.
Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health-Epidemiology, 722 West 168th St., New York, NY, 10032, USA.
Sci Rep. 2023 Mar 8;13(1):3886. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-31057-1.
Determining whether SARS-CoV-2 exhibits seasonality like other respiratory viruses is critical for public health planning. We evaluated whether COVID-19 rates follow a seasonal pattern using time series models. We used time series decomposition to extract the annual seasonal component of COVID-19 case, hospitalization, and mortality rates from March 2020 through December 2022 for the United States and Europe. Models were adjusted for a country-specific stringency index to account for confounding by various interventions. Despite year-round disease activity, we identified seasonal spikes in COVID-19 from approximately November through April for all outcomes and in all countries. Our results support employing annual preventative measures against SARS-CoV-2, such as administering seasonal booster vaccines in a similar timeframe as those in place for influenza. Whether certain high-risk individuals may need more than one COVID-19 vaccine booster dose each year will depend on factors like vaccine durability against severe illness and levels of year-round disease activity.
确定 SARS-CoV-2 是否像其他呼吸道病毒一样具有季节性，对于公共卫生规划至关重要。我们使用时间序列模型评估了 COVID-19 发病率是否遵循季节性模式。我们使用时间序列分解从 2020 年 3 月到 2022 年 12 月，为美国和欧洲提取了 COVID-19 病例、住院和死亡率的年度季节性成分。这些模型根据特定国家的严格指数进行了调整，以解释各种干预措施造成的混杂。尽管全年都有疾病活动，但我们发现所有结果和所有国家的 COVID-19 都在大约 11 月至 4 月期间出现季节性高峰。我们的研究结果支持针对 SARS-CoV-2 采取年度预防措施，例如在类似于流感疫苗接种时间框架内接种季节性加强疫苗。某些高风险个体是否每年需要不止一剂 COVID-19 加强疫苗，将取决于疫苗对严重疾病的耐久性以及全年疾病活动水平等因素。
