Nguyen Van Hung, Crepey Pascal, Williams B Adam, Welch Verna L, Pivette Jean Marie, Jones Charles H, True Jane M
VHN Consulting Inc., Montréal, QC H2V3L8, Canada.
Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sante Publique, 35043 Rennes, France.
Vaccines (Basel). 2025 Aug 1;13(8):828. doi: 10.3390/vaccines13080828.
An influenza pandemic is likely to occur in the coming decades and will be associated with substantial healthcare and financial burdens. In this study, we evaluated the potential economic costs of different vaccination scenarios for the US population in the context of a moderate or severe influenza pandemic. Economic analysis was performed for initiation of pandemic vaccination from 3 months vs. 6 months in the US after declaration of a pandemic. We evaluated three vaccine effectiveness levels (high, moderate, low) and two pandemic severity levels (moderate and severe). No vaccination would lead to total direct and indirect costs of $116 bn in a moderate pandemic and $823 bn in a severe pandemic. Initiation of vaccination at 3 months would result in cost savings versus no vaccination (excluding vaccine price) of $30-84 bn and $260-709 bn in a moderate and severe pandemic, respectively, whereas initiation of vaccination at 6 months would result in cost savings of $4-11 bn and $36-97 bn, respectively. Cost savings of $20 bn and $162 bn would occur in a moderate or severe pandemic, respectively, from use of a low effectiveness vaccine from 3 months instead of a high effectiveness vaccine from 6 months. Rapid initiation of vaccination would have a greater impact than increased vaccine effectiveness in reducing the economic impacts of an influenza pandemic.
未来几十年可能会发生流感大流行，并将带来巨大的医疗保健和经济负担。在本研究中，我们评估了在美国发生中度或重度流感大流行的情况下，不同疫苗接种方案对美国人群可能产生的经济成本。对美国在宣布大流行后3个月与6个月开始进行大流行疫苗接种进行了经济分析。我们评估了三种疫苗效力水平（高、中、低）和两种大流行严重程度水平（中度和重度）。不接种疫苗在中度大流行中将导致1160亿美元的直接和间接总成本，在重度大流行中将导致8230亿美元。在3个月时开始接种疫苗，与不接种疫苗相比（不包括疫苗价格），在中度和重度大流行中分别可节省成本300亿至840亿美元和2600亿至7090亿美元，而在6个月时开始接种疫苗，分别可节省成本40亿至110亿美元和360亿至970亿美元。在中度或重度大流行中，分别使用3个月时的低效疫苗而非6个月时的高效疫苗，将分别节省成本200亿美元和1620亿美元。在减少流感大流行的经济影响方面，迅速开始接种疫苗比提高疫苗效力具有更大的影响。
