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多种气象因素在时空异质性下对细菌性食源性疾病检出率的综合动态影响。

Comprehensive Dynamic Influence of Multiple Meteorological Factors on the Detection Rate of Bacterial Foodborne Diseases under Spatio-Temporal Heterogeneity.

机构信息

Department of Nutrition and Food Safety, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310051, China.

Zhejiang Key Laboratory of Urban Wetlands and Regional Change, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, China.

出版信息

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023 Feb 28;20(5):4321. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20054321.

Abstract

Foodborne diseases are a critical public health problem worldwide and significantly impact human health, economic losses, and social dynamics. Understanding the dynamic relationship between the detection rate of bacterial foodborne diseases and a variety of meteorological factors is crucial for predicting outbreaks of bacterial foodborne diseases. This study analyzed the spatio-temporal patterns of vibriosis in Zhejiang Province from 2014 to 2018 at regional and weekly scales, investigating the dynamic effects of various meteorological factors. Vibriosis had a significant temporal and spatial pattern of aggregation, and a high incidence period occurred in the summer seasons from June to August. The detection rate of in foodborne diseases was relatively high in the eastern coastal areas and northwestern Zhejiang Plain. Meteorological factors had lagging effects on the detection rate of (3 weeks for temperature, 8 weeks for relative humidity, 8 weeks for precipitation, and 2 weeks for sunlight hours), and the lag period varied in different spatial agglomeration regions. Therefore, disease control departments should launch vibriosis prevention and response programs that are two to eight weeks in advance of the current climate characteristics at different spatio-temporal clustering regions.

摘要

食源性疾病是全球范围内一个严重的公共卫生问题,对人类健康、经济损失和社会动态都有重大影响。了解细菌性食源性疾病的检出率与多种气象因素之间的动态关系,对于预测细菌性食源性疾病的爆发至关重要。本研究分析了 2014 年至 2018 年浙江省区域和周期间的霍乱弧菌病时空格局,调查了各种气象因素的动态影响。霍乱弧菌病具有显著的时空聚集模式,高发期出现在 6 月至 8 月的夏季。食源性疾病中 的检出率在东部沿海地区和浙西北平原较高。气象因素对 的检出率有滞后效应(温度滞后 3 周,相对湿度滞后 8 周,降水滞后 8 周,日照时间滞后 2 周),并且滞后期在不同的空间集聚区域有所不同。因此,疾病控制部门应在不同时空聚类区域,根据当前气候特征提前 2 至 8 周推出霍乱弧菌病的预防和应对方案。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/30eb/10001511/8f7980d5de66/ijerph-20-04321-g001.jpg

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