School of Economics and Resource Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
Center for Innovation and Development Studies, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023 Mar 3;20(5):4508. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20054508.
Green credit is an indispensable funding source through which China can achieve its carbon neutrality goal. This paper quantifies the influences of different green credit scales on energy structures, carbon reduction, the industrial economy, and the macroeconomy. It creates a green credit mechanism related to green technology innovation in a Chinese carbon neutrality computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and integrates energy, environmental, economic, and financial (3EF) systems. The green credit scale can influence green technology innovation and hence CO emissions. The results show that (1) green credit can accelerate China's achievement of its carbon neutrality goal, and the larger the green credit scale, the less time it takes to achieve goals; (2) the influence of green credit scales confers marginal decreasing effects with realistic policy considerations; (3) using a cost-benefit perspective, 60% is the most appropriate green credit scale to use to achieve dual carbon goals in China; (4) the different green credit scales have a heterogeneous impact on the industry output, and high-carbon-emission producers from nonenergy industries need to pay attention to their green credit risk. This research provides a scientific reference for the policy design of China's future green financial market development.
绿色信贷是中国实现碳中和目标不可或缺的资金来源。本文量化了不同绿色信贷规模对能源结构、碳减排、工业经济和宏观经济的影响。在一个中国碳中和可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型中，创建了一个与绿色技术创新相关的绿色信贷机制，并集成了能源、环境、经济和金融（3EF）系统。绿色信贷规模会影响绿色技术创新，从而影响 CO2 排放。结果表明：（1）绿色信贷可以加速中国实现碳中和目标，绿色信贷规模越大，实现目标所需的时间越短；（2）绿色信贷规模的影响具有现实政策考虑的边际递减效应；（3）从成本效益的角度来看，60%是中国实现双碳目标最合适的绿色信贷规模；（4）不同的绿色信贷规模对产业产出的影响存在异质性，非能源产业的高碳排放生产者需要注意其绿色信贷风险。本研究为中国未来绿色金融市场发展的政策设计提供了科学参考。
