Zhang Yongqiang, Qi Lingli, Lin Xinyue, Pan Haoran, Sharp Basil
School of Public Finance and Taxation, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, China.
Energy Center, University of Auckland, New Zealand.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Jun 15;825:154076. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154076. Epub 2022 Feb 23.
Global warming resulting from greenhouse gas emissions poses threats to humankind and has become a worldwide issue. As the top CO emitter in the world, China has committed to achieving its carbon emission peak by no later than 2030; in this context, how to best use and apply carbon emission reduction policy is particularly critical. By constructing a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we first examine a pure ETS included only the electricity sector in 2021, and the eight sectors starting in 2022, considering a declining carbon intensity rate of 4.5% and a higher rate of 4.8%. With the carbon intensity rates of 4.3% and 4.5%, we further evaluate two-hybrid systems of the carbon tax and carbon ETS, where the carbon tax of 10 yuan per ton is the starting levied rate in 2022 and increases at 4 yuan per ton year by year. The results proved that hybrid emission reduction policy can help reach a carbon emissions peak before 2030 and do so at a lower economic cost compared to the effect of pure carbon ETS. Besides, the coordinated use of a carbon tax and a carbon ETS can promote optimization of energy consumption structures and accelerate the decline of energy intensity and carbon intensity; this can contribute to curbing the growth of total energy consumption and total carbon emissions.
温室气体排放导致的全球变暖对人类构成威胁，并已成为一个全球性问题。作为全球最大的碳排放国，中国致力于在2030年前实现碳排放达峰；在此背景下，如何最好地利用和实施碳排放减少政策尤为关键。通过构建一个动态可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型，我们首先考察了2021年仅包括电力部门的纯排放交易体系（ETS），以及从2022年起涵盖八个部门的情况，考虑了4.5%的较低碳强度下降率和4.8%的较高碳强度下降率。以4.3%和4.5%的碳强度下降率，我们进一步评估了碳税与碳排放交易体系的两种混合系统，其中每吨10元的碳税是2022年的起始征收税率，并以每年每吨4元的速度递增。结果表明，混合减排政策有助于在2030年前实现碳排放达峰，并且与纯碳排放交易体系相比，能以更低的经济成本实现这一目标。此外，碳税与碳排放交易体系的协同使用能够促进能源消费结构的优化，并加速能源强度和碳强度的下降；这有助于抑制能源消费总量和碳排放总量的增长。
