School of Economics and Resource Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
Center for Innovation and Development Studies, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 May 20;19(10):6251. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19106251.
Global warming resulting from greenhouse gas emissions has been a worldwide issue facing humanity. Simultaneously, governments have the challenging task of striking a judicious balance between increased economic growth and decreased carbon emissions. Based on the energy-environment-economy triple coupling (3E-CGE) model, we endogenously integrate climate-friendly technologies into the model's analysis framework through logic curves and refine and modify the CGE model's energy use and carbon emission modules. We conduct a scenario simulation and sensitivity analysis on carbon tax, carbon-trading, and climate-friendly technological progress, respectively. The results reveal that carbon tax and carbon trading contribute to reducing carbon emissions in the short-term but achieving the goals of peak carbon and carbon neutrality will cause the collapse of the economic system. In the long-term, climate-friendly technologies are key to achieving the dual carbon goal; the development of such technologies can also stimulate economic development. The best path for China to achieve its dual carbon goals and economic development in the next 40 years involves effectively combining the carbon tax, carbon trading, and a climate-friendly technological progress. Specifically, China can begin trading carbon in high-emissions industries then impose industry-wide carbon taxes.
全球变暖是人类面临的一个全球性问题，这主要是由于温室气体排放所致。与此同时，政府面临着在促进经济增长和减少碳排放之间取得平衡的艰巨任务。基于能源-环境-经济三重关联（3E-CGE）模型，我们通过逻辑曲线将气候友好型技术内在地纳入模型的分析框架，并改进和修改 CGE 模型的能源使用和碳排放模块。我们分别对碳税、碳交易和气候友好型技术进步进行了情景模拟和敏感性分析。结果表明，碳税和碳交易有助于在短期内减少碳排放，但实现碳峰值和碳中和的目标将导致经济体系崩溃。从长期来看，气候友好型技术是实现双碳目标的关键；这类技术的发展也可以刺激经济发展。中国在未来 40 年内实现双碳目标和经济发展的最佳途径是有效结合碳税、碳交易和气候友好型技术进步。具体而言，中国可以先在高排放行业开展碳交易，然后对全行业征收碳税。
