Decoupling between carbon source and sink induced by responses of daily stem growth to water availability in subtropical urban forests.

Urban forests are anticipated to offer sustainable ecosystem services, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of the ways in which trees respond to environmental changes. This study monitored stem radius fluctuations in Cinnamomum camphora and Taxodium distichum var. imbricatum trees using high-resolution dendrometers at two sites, respectively. Gross primary production (GPP) was measured using eddy-covariance techniques and aggregated to daily sums. Hourly and daily stem radius fluctuations were estimated across both species, and the responses of stems to radiation (Rg), air temperature (Tair), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and soil humidity (SoilH) were quantified using Bayesian linear models. The diel growth patterns of the monitored trees showed similar characteristics at the species level. Results revealed that trees growth occurred primarily at night, with the lowest hourly contribution to total growth and probability for growth occurring in the afternoon. Furthermore, the Bayesian models indicated that VPD was the most important driver of daily growth and growth probability. After considering the potential constraints imposed by VPD, a modified Gompertz equation showed good performance, with R ranging from 0.94 to 0.99 for the relationship between accumulative growth and time. Bayes-based model-independent data assimilation using advanced Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms provided deeper insights into nonlinear model parameterization. Finally, the quantified relationship between GPP and stem daily growth revealed that the decoupling between carbon source and sink increased with VPD. These findings provided direct empirical evidence for VPD as a key driver of daily growth patterns and raise questions about carbon neutrality accounting under future climate change given the uncertainties induced by increased water stress limitations on carbon utilization.