Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Dongcheng District, Beijing, China.
General Administration of Customs (Beijing) International Travel Health Care Center, Dongcheng District, Beijing, China.
Euro Surveill. 2023 Mar;28(11). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.11.2300128.
With COVID-19 public health control measures downgraded in China in January 2023, reported COVID-19 case numbers may underestimate the true numbers after the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron wave. Using a multiplier model based on our influenza surveillance system, we estimated that the overall incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections was 392/100,000 population in Beijing during the 5 weeks following policy adjustment. No notable change occurred after the Spring Festival in early February. The multiplier model provides an opportunity for assessing the actual COVID-19 situation.
随着中国 2023 年 1 月对 COVID-19 公共卫生控制措施的降级,报告的 COVID-19 病例数可能低估了奥密克戎浪潮后的真实数字。我们使用基于流感监测系统的乘数模型,估计在政策调整后的 5 周内,北京每 10 万人 SARS-CoV-2 感染的总发病率为 392/100000。2 月初春节后没有明显变化。乘数模型为评估实际 COVID-19 情况提供了机会。