Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, Kanagawa University, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan.
Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Hosei University, Faculty of Science & Engineering, Tokyo, Japan.
PLoS One. 2023 Mar 17;18(3):e0283242. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0283242. eCollection 2023.
In sumo wrestling, a traditional sport in Japan, many wrestlers suffer from injuries through bouts. In 2019, an average of 5.2 out of 42 wrestlers in the top division of professional sumo wrestling were absent in each grand sumo tournament due to injury. As the number of injury occurrences increases, professional sumo wrestling becomes less interesting for sumo fans, requiring systems to prevent future occurrences. Statistical injury prediction is a useful way to communicate the risk of injuries for wrestlers and their coaches. However, the existing statistical methods of injury prediction are not always accurate because they do not consider the long-term effects of injuries. Here, we propose a statistical model of injury occurrences for sumo wrestlers. The proposed model provides the estimated probability of the next potential injury occurrence for a wrestler. In addition, it can support making a risk-based injury prevention scenario for wrestlers. While a previous study modeled injury occurrences by using the Poisson process, we model it by using the Hawkes process to consider the long-term effect of injuries. The proposed model can also be applied to injury prediction for athletes of other sports.
在日本的传统运动相扑中，许多力士因比赛而受伤。2019 年，在职业相扑的顶级比赛中，平均每 42 名力士中有 5.2 名因伤缺席每场大相扑比赛。随着受伤次数的增加，职业相扑对相扑迷来说变得不那么有趣了，需要有系统来防止未来的发生。统计损伤预测是一种向摔跤手及其教练传达受伤风险的有用方法。然而，现有的损伤预测统计方法并不总是准确的，因为它们没有考虑到损伤的长期影响。在这里，我们提出了一个相扑选手损伤发生的统计模型。所提出的模型为摔跤手提供了下一次潜在损伤发生的估计概率。此外，它还可以支持为摔跤手制定基于风险的损伤预防方案。虽然之前的研究使用泊松过程来模拟损伤发生情况，但我们使用 Hawkes 过程来模拟，以考虑损伤的长期影响。所提出的模型也可以应用于其他运动项目的运动员的损伤预测。
