The timings of host diapause and epidemic progression mediate host genetic diversity and future epidemic size in parasite populations.

Epidemics commonly exert parasite-mediated selection and cause declines in host population genetic diversity. This can lead to evolution of resistance in the long term and smaller subsequent epidemics. Alternatively, the loss of genetic diversity can increase host vulnerability to future disease spread and larger future epidemics. Matters are made more complex by the fact that a great many host organisms produce diapausing life stages in response to environmental change (often as a result of sexual reproduction; e.g. plant seeds and invertebrate resting eggs). These diapausing stages can disrupt the relationship between past epidemics, host genetic diversity and future epidemics because they allow host dispersal through time. Specifically, temporally dispersing hosts avoid infection and thus selection from contemporary parasites, and also archive genetic variation for the future. We studied 80 epidemics in 20 semi-natural populations of the temporally dispersing crustacean and its sterilizing bacterial parasite , and half of these populations experienced a simulated environmental disturbance treatment. We found that early initiation of diapause relative to the timing of the epidemic led to greater host genetic diversity and reduced epidemic size in the subsequent year, but this was unaffected by environmental disturbance.