Department of Foresry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA.
Department of Economics, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
Nat Commun. 2023 Mar 23;14(1):1415. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-37080-0.
Droughts reduce hydropower production and heatwaves increase electricity demand, forcing power system operators to rely more on fossil fuel power plants. However, less is known about how droughts and heat waves impact the county level distribution of health damages from power plant emissions. Using California as a case study, we simulate emissions from power plants under a 500-year synthetic weather ensemble. We find that human health damages are highest in hot, dry years. Counties with a majority of people of color and counties with high pollution burden (which are somewhat overlapping) are disproportionately impacted by increased emissions from power plants during droughts and heat waves. Taxing power plant operations based on each plant's contribution to health damages significantly reduces average exposure. However, emissions taxes do not reduce air pollution damages on the worst polluting days, because supply scarcity (caused by severe heat waves) forces system operators to use every power plant available to avoid causing a blackout.
干旱减少水力发电产量，热浪增加电力需求，迫使电力系统运营商更多地依赖化石燃料发电厂。然而，对于干旱和热浪如何影响电厂排放造成的健康损害在县级的分布，人们知之甚少。我们以加利福尼亚州为案例研究，根据 500 年的综合天气模拟集来模拟电厂排放。我们发现，在炎热干燥的年份，人体健康损害最大。在以有色人种为主的县和污染负担高的县（两者有些重叠），在干旱和热浪期间，电厂排放增加对人体健康的影响不成比例。根据每个电厂对健康损害的贡献对电厂运营征税，可以显著降低平均暴露水平。然而，排放税并没有减少污染最严重的日子的空气污染损害，因为严重的热浪导致供应短缺（这是由严重的热浪造成的），迫使系统运营商使用每一个可用的电厂来避免造成停电。
