在2027年实现本土病例零状态的背景下跟踪地区层面的表现。
Tracking district-level performance in the context of achieving zero indigenous case status by 2027.
作者信息
Yadav Chander Prakash, Hussain Syed Shah Areeb, Gupta Sanjeev, Bharti Praveen K, Rahi Manju, Sharma Amit
机构信息
ICMR-National Institute of Malaria Research, New Delhi, India.
Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research (AcSIR), Ghaziabad, UP, India.
出版信息
PLOS Glob Public Health. 2023 Jan 6;3(1):e0001292. doi: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0001292. eCollection 2023.
India has committed to zero indigenous malaria cases by 2027 and elimination by 2030. Of 28 states and 8 union territories of India, eleven states were targeted to reach the elimination phase by 2020. However, state-level epidemiology indicates that several states of India may not be on the optimum track, and few goals set in National Framework for Malaria Elimination (NFME) for 2020 remain to be addressed. Therefore, tracking the current progress of malaria elimination in India at the district level, and identifying districts that are off track is important in understanding possible shortfalls to malaria elimination. Annual malaria case data from 2017-20 of 686 districts of India were obtained from the National Center for Vector-Borne Diseases Control (NCVBDC) and analysed to evaluate the performance of districts to achieve zero case status by 2027. A district's performance was evaluated by calculating the annual percentage change in the total number of malaria cases for the years 2018, 2019 and 2020 considering the previous year as a base year. The mean, median and maximum of these annual changes were then used to project the number of malaria cases in 2027. Based on these, districts were classified into four groups: 1) districts that are expected to reach zero case status by 2027, 2) districts that would achieve zero case status between 2028 and 2030, 3) districts that would arrive at zero case status after 2030, and 4) districts where malaria cases are on the rise. Analysis suggest, a cohort of fifteen districts require urgent modification or improvement in their malaria control strategies by identifying foci of infection and customizing interventions. They may also require new interventional tools that are being developed recently so that malaria case reduction over the years may be increased.
印度已承诺到2027年实现本土疟疾病例清零,并在2030年消除疟疾。在印度的28个邦和8个联邦属地中,有11个邦的目标是到2020年进入消除阶段。然而,邦级流行病学数据表明,印度的几个邦可能并未走上最佳轨道,《2020年国家疟疾消除框架》(NFME)设定的一些目标仍有待实现。因此,在地区层面追踪印度疟疾消除的当前进展,并识别偏离轨道的地区,对于了解疟疾消除可能存在的不足至关重要。从国家媒介传播疾病控制中心(NCVBDC)获取了印度686个地区2017 - 2020年的年度疟疾病例数据,并进行分析,以评估各地区到2027年实现病例清零的表现。通过计算2018年、2019年和2020年疟疾病例总数的年度百分比变化(以前一年为基年)来评估一个地区的表现。然后利用这些年度变化的平均值、中位数和最大值来预测2027年的疟疾病例数。基于此,各地区被分为四类:1)预计到2027年达到病例清零状态的地区;2)将在2028年至2030年之间实现病例清零状态的地区;3)将在2030年之后达到病例清零状态的地区;4)疟疾病例呈上升趋势的地区。分析表明,有15个地区需要通过识别感染源和定制干预措施,紧急调整或改进其疟疾控制策略。它们可能还需要最近正在研发的新干预工具,以便多年来能够增加疟疾病例的减少量。
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