Multistage carcinogenesis: Impact of age, genetic, and environmental factors on the incidence of malignant mesothelioma.

The current paradigm of carcinogenesis as a cellular evolutionary process driven by mutations of a few critical driver genes has immediate logical implications for the epidemiology of cancer. These include the impact of age on cancer risk, the role played by inherited tumor predisposition syndromes, and the interaction of genetics and environmental exposures on cancer risk. In this paper, we explore the following logical epidemiological consequences of carcinogenesis as a clonal process of mutation accumulation, with special emphasis on asbestos-related cancers, specifically malignant mesothelioma:1 All cancers, including mesothelioma, can and do occur spontaneously, i.e., in the absence of exposure to any environmental carcinogens. 2. Age is an important determinant of cancer risk, with or without exposure to environmental carcinogens. 3. Genetic tumor predisposition syndromes, such as the BAP1 syndrome, increase enormously the risk of cancer even in the absence of exposure to environmental carcinogens. We illustrate these concepts by applying a multistage clonal expansion model to U.S. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results cancer registry data for pleural and peritoneal malignant mesotheliomas in 1975-2018.