Quantitative assessment of mesothelioma and lung cancer risk based on Phase Contrast Microscopy (PCM) estimates of fibre exposure: an update of 2000 asbestos cohort data.

An earlier meta-analysis of mortality studies of asbestos-exposed worker populations, quantified excess mesothelioma and lung cancer risks in relation to cumulative exposure to the three main commercial asbestos types. The aim of this paper was to update these analyses incorporating new data based on increased follow-up of studies previously included, as well as studies of worker populations exposed predominantly to single fibre types published since the original analysis. Mesothelioma as a percentage of expected mortality due to all causes of death, percentage excess lung cancer and mean cumulative exposure were abstracted from available mortality studies of workers exposed predominantly to single asbestos types. Average excess mesothelioma and lung cancer per unit of cumulative exposure were summarised for groupings of studies by fibre type; models for pleural and peritoneal mesothelioma risk and lung cancer risk in terms of cumulative exposure for the different fibre types were fitted using Poisson regression. The average mesothelioma risks (per cent of total expected mortality) per unit cumulative exposure (f/cc.yr), R, were 0.51 for crocidolite, 0.12 for amosite, and 0.03 for the Libby mixed amphiboles cohort. Significant heterogeneity was present for cohorts classed as chrysotile, with R values of 0.01 for chrysotile textiles cohorts and 0.0011 for other chrysotile-exposed cohorts. Average percentage excess lung cancer risks per unit cumulative exposure, R, were 4.3 for crocidolite and amosite combined, 0.82 for Libby. Very significant heterogeneity was present for chrysotile-exposed cohorts with R values spanning two orders of magnitude from 0.053 for the Balangero mine to 4.8 for the South Carolina textiles cohort. Best fitting models suggest a non-linear exposure-response in which the peritoneal mesothelioma risk is proportional to approximately the square of cumulative exposure. Pleural mesothelioma and lung cancer risk were proportion to powers of cumulative exposure slightly less than one and slightly higher than one respectively.