Substitution of higher-strength beers with zero-alcohol beers: Interrupted time series analyses of Spanish household purchase data, 2017-2022.

In its action plan (2022-2030) to reduce the harmful use of alcohol, WHO calls on economic operators to "substitute, whenever possible, higher-alcohol products with no-alcohol and lower-alcohol products in their overall product portfolios, with the goal of decreasing the overall levels of alcohol consumption in populations and consumer groups". This paper investigates substitution within beer brands at the level of the consumer, based on Spanish household purchase data using interrupted time series analysis. For households (n = 1791, 9.1% of all households) that newly bought at least one of eleven branded zero-alcohol beers (responsible for over three-quarters of all zero-alcohol beer purchased), the associated purchases of all grams of alcohol after the first purchase of zero-alcohol beer were reduced by 5.5%, largely due to substituting every one litre of higher strength beer (ABV > 3.5%) with 0.75 litres of same-branded zero-alcohol beer (ABV = 0.0%). For households (n = 337, 1.8% of all households) that had never previously purchased a same-branded higher-strength beer, but newly purchasing a same-branded zero-alcohol beer, the associated purchases of all grams of alcohol after the first purchase of zero-alcohol beer were reduced by 14%; this reduction was largely due to such households' decreasing their associated purchases of wines and spirits. Thus, at the level of the consumer, based on Spanish household purchase data of branded zero-alcohol beers, the evidence behind WHO's call for substitution appears to be substantiated.