Care and Public Health Research Institute, Maastricht University, 6200 MD Maastricht, The Netherlands.
Population Health Sciences Institute, Newcastle University, Baddiley-Clark Building, Newcastle upon Tyne NE2 4AX, UK.
Nutrients. 2022 Aug 19;14(16):3412. doi: 10.3390/nu14163412.
In its action plan (2022-2030) to reduce the harmful use of alcohol, the WHO calls on economic operators to "substitute, whenever possible, higher-alcohol products with no-alcohol and lower-alcohol products in their overall product portfolios, with the goal of decreasing the overall levels of alcohol consumption in populations and consumer groups". In this paper, we investigate substitution at the level of the consumer based on Spanish household purchase data. ARIMA modelling of market research data of 1.29 million alcohol purchases from 18,954 Spanish households is used to study the potential impact of lower-strength alcohol products on reducing household purchases of grams of alcohol between the second quarter of 2017 and the first quarter of 2022. For households that recently bought either no-alcohol beer or wine (ABV ≤ 0.5%), the subsequent associated purchases of higher-strength beers and wines, respectively, and total grams of alcohol were reduced, the more so the higher the volume of initial purchases of beers and wines. The introduction of 20% ABV variants of same-branded 40% ABV whisky and gin during early 2021 was associated with reduced purchases of grams of alcohol within all spirits and of total grams of alcohol as a result of switching from other spirits products to the 20% variants, although not associated with reduced purchases of grams of alcohol within all variants of the studied same-branded whisky and gin; instead, an increase was observed in this category. With respect to Spanish household purchase data, the evidence behind the WHO's call for substitution is substantiated. Further research across different jurisdictions is needed to provide ongoing monitoring of the impact of potential substitution on consumer behavior and public health, including unintended consequences, with findings from research informing future alcohol policies at all levels.
在其（2022-2030 年）减少有害酒精使用行动计划中，世卫组织呼吁经济经营者“在其整体产品组合中，尽可能用无酒精和低酒精产品替代高酒精产品，以降低人群和消费群体的总体酒精消费水平”。本文基于西班牙家庭购买数据，研究了消费者层面的替代情况。使用 ARIMA 模型对 18954 户西班牙家庭的 129 万次酒精购买的市场研究数据进行建模，以研究低强度酒精产品对减少 2017 年第二季度至 2022 年第一季度家庭购买酒精量的潜在影响。对于最近购买无酒精啤酒或葡萄酒（ABV≤0.5%）的家庭来说，随后分别购买更高强度的啤酒和葡萄酒以及总酒精量减少，初始购买量越高，减少幅度越大。2021 年初推出的相同品牌 40%ABV 威士忌和杜松子酒的 20%ABV 变体，由于从其他烈酒产品转向 20%ABV 变体，导致所有烈酒和总酒精量的购买量减少，尽管这与研究的相同品牌威士忌和杜松子酒的所有变体的酒精购买量减少无关；相反，该类别观察到了增长。就西班牙家庭购买数据而言，世卫组织呼吁替代的证据是确凿的。需要在不同司法管辖区进行进一步研究，以持续监测潜在替代对消费者行为和公共卫生的影响，包括意外后果，研究结果将为各级别的未来酒精政策提供信息。
