A methodology for predicting the effects of changes in civil commitment decision making.

We review a three-step civil commitment model and formulas for calculating the probability of release from commitment and the relative importance of the three steps in determining the outcome. New formulas are developed which enable predictions to be made about the effects of changes on the outcome of the three steps on the release probability. With the use of data from Oregon's civil commitment process, we present an example of the application of the methodology and conclude with a discussion of its major administrative and research implications.