Pilotti Maura A E, El Alaoui Khadija, Waked Arifi N
College of Sciences and Human Studies, Prince Mohammad Bin Fahd University, P.O. Box 1664, Al Khobar 31952, Saudi Arabia.
Behav Sci (Basel). 2023 Mar 21;13(3):275. doi: 10.3390/bs13030275.
The "Dunning-Kruger effect" refers to the tendency of poor performers to overestimate test outcomes. Although a widespread phenomenon, questions exist regarding its source and sensitivity to countermeasures. The present field study aimed to (a) examine whether practice with tests used in previous classes can enhance students' ability to estimate test outcomes, (b) determine the main source of the effect (i.e., is it unawareness of one's readiness or wishful thinking?), and (c) assess the extent to which particular individual differences can be used as predictors of test performance. In this study, participants practiced with old tests and then completed the final exam. Before and after the exam, they predicted their grades and indicated their subjective confidence in the predictions made. Furthermore, participants' emotional intelligence and self-efficacy about their academic abilities were surveyed. Results suggested that poor performers were not unaware of their test preparation, but rather engaged in wishful thinking. In fact, although they overestimated their test grades, their estimates not only improved after completing the final test but also were regarded with little confidence. Overall, estimation bias was a good predictor of students' final test performance, whereas subjective confidence and emotional intelligence only weakly predicted such performance. Thus, if proactive interventions are to be developed for at-risk students, performance-estimation tasks may offer valuable information regarding such students' future performance in a course much more than emotional intelligence and self-efficacy measures.
“邓宁-克鲁格效应”指的是表现较差者高估测试结果的倾向。尽管这是一个普遍现象，但关于其来源以及对对策的敏感性仍存在疑问。本实地研究旨在：（a）检验使用之前课程中的测试进行练习是否能提高学生预估测试结果的能力；（b）确定该效应的主要来源（即，是对自身准备情况缺乏认识还是一厢情愿？）；以及（c）评估特定个体差异在多大程度上可作为测试成绩的预测指标。在本研究中，参与者使用旧测试进行练习，然后完成期末考试。在考试前后，他们预测自己的成绩，并表明对所做预测的主观信心。此外，还对参与者的情商以及他们对学术能力的自我效能感进行了调查。结果表明，表现较差者并非没有意识到自己的考试准备情况，而是存在一厢情愿的想法。事实上，尽管他们高估了自己的考试成绩，但他们的预估不仅在完成期末考试后有所改善，而且信心不足。总体而言，预估偏差是学生期末考试成绩的良好预测指标，而主观信心和情商对这种成绩的预测作用较弱。因此，如果要为有风险的学生制定积极的干预措施，成绩预估任务可能比情商和自我效能感测量能提供更多有关这些学生在一门课程中未来表现的有价值信息。
