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谦逊的估计:谦逊预示着更高的自我评估准确性。

The humble estimate: Humility predicts higher self-assessment accuracy.

作者信息

Teo Nigel Q X, Lim Travis, Tong Eddie M W

机构信息

National University of Singapore, Singapore City, Singapore.

出版信息

Br J Soc Psychol. 2023 Jan;62(1):561-582. doi: 10.1111/bjso.12545. Epub 2022 May 6.

DOI:10.1111/bjso.12545
PMID:35514232
Abstract

Humility is thought to be associated with greater accuracy in self-assessment. However, clear evidence is lacking. Two studies tested this central proposition. In Study 1 (N = 258), participants completed a task on logical reasoning before estimating both their raw and relative performance. Study 2 (N = 214) was aimed at replicating Study 1 with a task on English fluency. Results from both studies were consistent. There was evidence of overestimation bias across each sample in which participants' estimated performance was higher than their actual performance. More importantly, humility was associated with less overestimation bias, such that the difference in estimated and actual performance was smaller or non-existent among those higher in humility. We also replicated the Dunning-Kruger effect in which participants of lower ability in these skills (i.e., lower actual scores) were most likely to overestimate their performance. Further analyses found that the negative relationship between humility and overestimation bias was not moderated by actual performances. However, the same analyses revealed that the Dunning-Kruger effect was also not moderated by humility. Hence, there is strong replicable evidence that humility is associated with less overestimation bias, supporting the view that greater accuracy in self-assessment is an attribute of humility, and that this relationship is independent of actual ability, but humility does not affect the robust Dunning-Kruger effect.

摘要

谦逊被认为与更准确的自我评估相关。然而,缺乏明确的证据。两项研究对这一核心命题进行了测试。在研究1(N = 258)中,参与者在估计自己的原始表现和相对表现之前,完成了一项逻辑推理任务。研究2(N = 214)旨在通过一项英语流利度任务来复制研究1。两项研究的结果是一致的。在每个样本中都有高估偏差的证据,即参与者估计的表现高于他们的实际表现。更重要的是,谦逊与较少的高估偏差相关,也就是说,在谦逊程度较高的人中,估计表现与实际表现之间的差异较小或不存在。我们还复制了邓宁-克鲁格效应,即在这些技能上能力较低(即实际得分较低)的参与者最有可能高估自己的表现。进一步的分析发现,谦逊与高估偏差之间的负相关关系不受实际表现的调节。然而,同样的分析表明,邓宁-克鲁格效应也不受谦逊的调节。因此,有强有力的可重复证据表明,谦逊与较少的高估偏差相关,支持了这样一种观点,即更准确的自我评估是谦逊的一个属性,并且这种关系独立于实际能力,但谦逊并不影响强大的邓宁-克鲁格效应。

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