Kopsco Heather L, Gronemeyer Peg, Mateus-Pinilla Nohra, Smith Rebecca L
Department of Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61802, USA.
Illinois Natural History Survey, Prairie Research Institute, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61802, USA.
Insects. 2023 Feb 21;14(3):213. doi: 10.3390/insects14030213.
The greater U.S. Midwest is on the leading edge of tick and tick-borne disease (TBD) expansion, with tick and TBD encroachment into Illinois occurring from both the northern and the southern regions. To assess the historical and future habitat suitability of four ticks of medical concern within the state, we fit individual and mean-weighted ensemble species distribution models for , , and a newly invading species, using a variety of landscape and mean climate variables for the periods of 1970-2000, 2041-2060, and 2061-2080. Ensemble model projections for the historical climate were consistent with known distributions of each species but predicted the habitat suitability of to be much greater throughout Illinois than what known distributions demonstrate. The presence of forests and wetlands were the most important landcover classes predicting the occurrence of all tick species. As the climate warmed, the expected distribution of all species became strongly responsive to precipitation and temperature variables, particularly precipitation of the warmest quarter and mean diurnal range, as well as proximity to forest cover and water sources. The suitable habitat for , , and was predicted to significantly narrow in the 2050 climate scenario and then increase more broadly statewide in the 2070 scenario but at reduced likelihoods. Predicting where ticks may invade and concentrate as the climate changes will be important to anticipate, prevent, and treat TBD in Illinois.
美国中西部地区处于蜱虫及蜱传疾病（TBD）扩张的前沿，蜱虫和蜱传疾病正从北部和南部地区向伊利诺伊州蔓延。为评估该州四种具有医学意义的蜱虫的历史和未来栖息地适宜性，我们使用1970 - 2000年、2041 - 2060年和2061 - 2080年期间的各种景观和平均气候变量，对[具体蜱虫物种1]（此处原文未给出具体物种名）、[具体蜱虫物种2]、[具体蜱虫物种3]以及一种新入侵物种[具体蜱虫物种4]（此处原文未给出具体物种名）拟合了个体和平均加权集合物种分布模型。历史气候的集合模型预测结果与每个物种的已知分布一致，但预测[具体蜱虫物种4]在伊利诺伊州全境的栖息地适宜性比已知分布所显示的要高得多。森林和湿地的存在是预测所有蜱虫物种出现的最重要土地覆盖类型。随着气候变暖，所有物种的预期分布对降水和温度变量变得高度敏感，特别是最暖季度的降水量和平均日较差，以及与森林覆盖和水源的距离。在2050年气候情景下，预测[具体蜱虫物种1]、[具体蜱虫物种2]和[具体蜱虫物种3]的适宜栖息地将显著缩小，然后在2070年情景下在全州范围内更广泛地增加，但可能性降低。预测随着气候变化蜱虫可能入侵和集中的地点，对于在伊利诺伊州预测、预防和治疗蜱传疾病至关重要。
