Wang Xiaoxu, Shang Meng, Wang Zihao, Ji Haoqiang, Wang Zhenxu, Liu Qiyong
Department of Vector Control, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Disease, Department of Vector Biology and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Front Public Health. 2025 Mar 6;13:1478736. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1478736. eCollection 2025.
To determine the current and future suitable areas of , and to provide a reference for preventing its outbreak and spread.
Based on the geographic distribution of and overlapping data points and information on 56 climatic factors, we utilized the Maxent model to estimate suitable areas for in Asian adjacent Regions and China. Model parameter adjustments and the construction of receiver operating characteristic curves were conducted using R 4.3.0 software.
Average precipitation in June (prec6, 28.2%), Temperature Seasonality (bio4, 9.8%) and the minimum temperature in August (tmin8, 9.2%) contributed most to the distribution of . The performance metrics for the Maxent model in predicting the distribution of are as follows: the Area Under the Curve (AUC) is 0.990, the True Skill Statistic (TSS) is 0.857, and the Kappa statistic is 0.763. Under current climatic conditions, the Asian and adjacent space medium and highly suitable areas for are estimated to be 176.78 × 10 km and 95.13 × 10 km, respectively. The highly suitable areas for were mainly distributed in east and south Asia. In China, the high suitability areas are mainly distributed in the southeast coastal areas and the Qinling Mountains and Huai River cities. Under future climatic conditions, the Asian and adjacent regions maximum area change rate of increased by 118.65%, and that of China increased by 50.42%. Meanwhile, the suitable areas of gradually expanding northward in China.
Under global climate change, the suitable area of is generally increasing, with a northward shift observed in China. Governments should strengthen monitoring, risk assessment, and response strategies in highly suitable regions, while also preventing the invasion of from external source.
确定[某种事物]当前及未来的适宜区域，为预防其暴发和传播提供参考。
基于[某种事物]的地理分布以及与56个气候因子重叠的数据点和信息，我们利用最大熵模型（Maxent模型）来估计亚洲邻近地区和中国[某种事物]的适宜区域。使用R 4.3.0软件进行模型参数调整和受试者工作特征曲线的构建。
6月平均降水量（prec6，28.2%）、温度季节性变化（bio4，9.8%）和8月最低温度（tmin8，9.2%）对[某种事物]的分布贡献最大。Maxent模型预测[某种事物]分布的性能指标如下：曲线下面积（AUC）为0.990，真实技能统计量（TSS）为0.857，卡帕统计量为0.763。在当前气候条件下，亚洲及邻近地区[某种事物]的中度和高度适宜区域估计分别为176.78×10平方千米和95.13×10平方千米。[某种事物]的高度适宜区域主要分布在东亚和南亚。在中国，高度适宜区域主要分布在东南沿海地区以及秦岭和淮河沿线城市。在未来气候条件下，亚洲及邻近地区[某种事物]的最大面积变化率增加了118.65%，中国增加了50.42%。同时，在中国[某种事物]的适宜区域逐渐向北扩展。
在全球气候变化的情况下，[某种事物]的适宜区域总体上在增加，在中国呈现向北转移的趋势。政府应加强对高度适宜区域的监测、风险评估和应对策略，同时防止[某种事物]从外部来源入侵。
