Eygu Hakan, Soğukpınar Fatih
Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ataturk University, Erzurum, Turkey.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Apr;30(20):58213-58225. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-26551-y. Epub 2023 Mar 28.
Energy is an indispensable requirement for the sustainable development of countries. Turkey has been trying to increase the use of renewable sources in electricity energy production with the policies it has implemented recently. This study investigates the effect of disaggregate energy consumption on economic growth in Turkey via the Augmented ARDL. Robust results are obtained by Augmented ARDL in econometric analysis. In this context, it is to examine the impact of renewable energy, natural gas, and coal consumption. Considering the 2001 crisis in Turkey, we add a dummy variable to the cointegration equation. The paper employs the recently developed augmented ARDL approach in the presence of one structural break to investigate annual time series data during the period 1988-2018. The results obtained in this study showed that all variables were statistically significant eventually. Long-term estimation results suggest that among the energy sources examined in the study, on economic growth has a positive effect coal consumption, natural gas consumption, and renewable energy. Moreover, empirical results indicated that economic growth and energy consumption also contribute to environmental damage. On the contrary, natural gas both increases economic growth and is effective in increasing environmental quality. The fact that the positive effect of renewable energy sources on economic growth eventually is greater than natural gas is the most striking finding of the study. In line with these results, it can be said that Turkey can reduce its energy dependence by increasing the use of domestic and renewable energy sources and providing sustainable economic growth.
能源是各国可持续发展不可或缺的要素。土耳其近期通过实施相关政策，一直在努力提高可再生能源在电力生产中的使用比例。本研究借助增强自回归分布滞后模型（Augmented ARDL），探究土耳其能源消费细分对经济增长的影响。在计量分析中，增强自回归分布滞后模型得出了可靠的结果。在此背景下，研究旨在考察可再生能源、天然气和煤炭消费的影响。考虑到土耳其2001年的危机，我们在协整方程中加入了一个虚拟变量。本文运用了近期在存在一个结构断点情况下发展起来的增强自回归分布滞后方法，来研究1988 - 2018年期间的年度时间序列数据。本研究获得的结果表明，所有变量最终都具有统计学意义。长期估计结果表明，在本研究考察的能源中，煤炭消费、天然气消费和可再生能源对经济增长均有正向影响。此外，实证结果表明经济增长和能源消费也会导致环境破坏。相反，天然气既能促进经济增长，又对提高环境质量有作用。可再生能源对经济增长的正向影响最终大于天然气，这是该研究最显著的发现。基于这些结果，可以说土耳其能够通过增加国内和可再生能源的使用，并实现可持续经济增长，来降低其能源依赖。
