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估算秘鲁 COVID-19 大流行期间前列腺癌、乳腺癌和子宫癌的超额死亡率:时间序列分析。

Estimating Excess Mortality Due to Prostate, Breast, and Uterus Cancer during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Peru: A Time Series Analysis.

机构信息

Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad Tecnológica del Peru, Lima 15046, Peru.

Unidad de Telemedicina, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Lima 15001, Peru.

出版信息

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023 Mar 15;20(6):5156. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20065156.


DOI:10.3390/ijerph20065156
PMID:36982065
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10049374/
Abstract

During the COVID-19 pandemic, most of the deaths in Peru were related to COVID-19; however, cancer deaths have also been exacerbated in the first months of the pandemic. Despite this, excess mortalities of prostate, breast, and uterus cancer are not available by age group and region from January to December 2020. Therefore, we estimated the excess deaths and excess death rates (per 100,000 habitants) due to prostate, breast, and uterus cancer in 25 Peruvian regions. We did a time series analysis. Prostate, breast, and uterus cancer death data for 25 Peruvian regions were retrieved during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, as well as data for up to 3 years prior (2017-2019) from the Sistema Informatico Nacional de Defunciones at the Ministry of Health of Peru. Deaths in 2020 were defined as observed deaths. The expected deaths (in 2020) were estimated using the average deaths over 3 preceding years (2017, 2018 and 2019). Excess mortality was calculated as the difference between observed mortality and expected mortality in 2020. We estimated that the number of excess deaths and the excess death rates due to prostate, breast, and uterus cancer were 610 deaths (55%; 12.8 deaths per 100,000 men), 443 deaths (43%; 6 deaths per 100,000 women), and 154 deaths (25%; 2 deaths per 100,000 women), respectively. Excess numbers of deaths and excess death rates due to prostate and breast cancer increased with age. These excess deaths were higher in men aged ≥ 80 years (596 deaths (64%) and 150 deaths per 100,000 men) and women aged 70-79 years (229 deaths (58%) and 15 deaths per 100,000 women), respectively. In summary, during the COVID-19 pandemic, there were excess prostate and breast cancer mortalities in 2020 in Peru, while excess uterus cancer mortalities were low. Age-stratified excess death rates for prostate cancer and breast cancer were higher in men ≥ 80 years and in women ≥ 70 years, respectively.

摘要

在 COVID-19 大流行期间,秘鲁的大多数死亡都与 COVID-19 有关;然而,在大流行的头几个月,癌症死亡人数也有所增加。尽管如此,2020 年 1 月至 12 月,按年龄组和地区划分的前列腺癌、乳腺癌和子宫癌的超额死亡人数尚不可用。因此,我们估计了秘鲁 25 个地区因前列腺癌、乳腺癌和子宫癌而导致的超额死亡人数和超额死亡率(每 10 万居民)。我们进行了时间序列分析。从秘鲁卫生部的国家死亡信息系统中检索了 2020 年 COVID-19 大流行期间秘鲁 25 个地区的前列腺癌、乳腺癌和子宫癌死亡数据,以及前 3 年(2017-2019 年)的数据。2020 年的死亡人数被定义为观察到的死亡人数。预期死亡人数(2020 年)是通过使用前 3 年(2017 年、2018 年和 2019 年)的平均死亡人数来估计的。超额死亡率是观察到的死亡率与 2020 年预期死亡率之间的差值。我们估计,由于前列腺癌、乳腺癌和子宫癌而导致的超额死亡人数和超额死亡率分别为 610 人(55%;每 10 万男性 12.8 人死亡)、443 人(43%;每 10 万女性 6 人死亡)和 154 人(25%;每 10 万女性 2 人死亡)。由于前列腺癌和乳腺癌导致的死亡人数和超额死亡率均随年龄增长而增加。在≥80 岁的男性(596 人(64%)和每 10 万男性 150 人死亡)和 70-79 岁的女性(229 人(58%)和每 10 万女性 15 人死亡)中,这些超额死亡人数更高。总之,在 COVID-19 大流行期间,秘鲁 2020 年出现了前列腺癌和乳腺癌的超额死亡人数,而子宫癌的超额死亡人数则较低。前列腺癌和乳腺癌的年龄别超额死亡率在≥80 岁的男性和≥70 岁的女性中分别较高。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3ce1/10049374/0d41f8734ac4/ijerph-20-05156-g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3ce1/10049374/a8410e2b5ccd/ijerph-20-05156-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3ce1/10049374/807f960b1439/ijerph-20-05156-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3ce1/10049374/2f461607f88a/ijerph-20-05156-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3ce1/10049374/d507c1c74862/ijerph-20-05156-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3ce1/10049374/875bd3daef01/ijerph-20-05156-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3ce1/10049374/516a282d626b/ijerph-20-05156-g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3ce1/10049374/0d41f8734ac4/ijerph-20-05156-g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3ce1/10049374/a8410e2b5ccd/ijerph-20-05156-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3ce1/10049374/807f960b1439/ijerph-20-05156-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3ce1/10049374/2f461607f88a/ijerph-20-05156-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3ce1/10049374/d507c1c74862/ijerph-20-05156-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3ce1/10049374/875bd3daef01/ijerph-20-05156-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3ce1/10049374/516a282d626b/ijerph-20-05156-g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3ce1/10049374/0d41f8734ac4/ijerph-20-05156-g007.jpg

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[5]
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本文引用的文献

[1]
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JAMA Oncol. 2022-11-1

[2]
Description of surgical activity and mortality of oncological surgeries at the National Institute of Neoplastic Diseases (INEN) during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

Rev Peru Med Exp Salud Publica. 2022

[3]
Cancer incidence and mortality in Australia from 2020 to 2044 and an exploratory analysis of the potential effect of treatment delays during the COVID-19 pandemic: a statistical modelling study.

Lancet Public Health. 2022-6

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JAMA Oncol. 2022-6-1

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Cancer Manag Res. 2022-3-8

[6]
Estimating excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis of COVID-19-related mortality, 2020-21.

Lancet. 2022-4-16

[7]
Excess all-cause deaths stratified by sex and age in Peru: a time series analysis during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BMJ Open. 2022-3-10

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Mayo Clin Proc Innov Qual Outcomes. 2021-12

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Androgen deprivation therapy and excess mortality in men with prostate cancer during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.

PLoS One. 2021

[10]
Excess deaths from COVID-19 and other causes by region, neighbourhood deprivation level and place of death during the first 30 weeks of the pandemic in England and Wales: A retrospective registry study.

Lancet Reg Health Eur. 2021-6-8

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