Ramírez-Soto Max Carlos, Ortega-Cáceres Gutia
Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad Tecnológica del Perú, Lima 15046, Peru.
Escuela de Posgrado, Universidad Ricardo Palma, Lima 15039, Peru.
Trop Med Infect Dis. 2022 Mar 5;7(3):44. doi: 10.3390/tropicalmed7030044.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, an excess of all-cause mortality has been recorded in several countries, including Peru. Most excess deaths were likely attributable to COVID-19. In this study, we compared the excess all-cause mortality and COVID-19 mortality in 25 Peruvian regions to determine whether most of the excess deaths in 2020 were attributable to COVID-19. Excess deaths were calculated as the difference between the number of observed deaths from all causes during the COVID-19 pandemic (in 2020) and the number of expected deaths in 2020 based on a historical from recent years (2017-2019). Death data were retrieved from the Sistema Informatico Nacional de Defunciones (SINADEF) at the Ministry of Health of Peru from January 2017 to December 2020. Population counts were obtained from projections from Peru's Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática (INEI). All-cause excess mortality and COVID-19 mortality were calculated by region per 100,000 population. Spearman's test and linear and multiple regression models were used to estimate the correlation between excess all-cause mortality and COVID-19 mortality per 100,000 population. Excess all-cause death rates varied widely among regions (range: 115.1 to 519.8 per 100,000 population), and COVID-19 mortality ranged between 83.8 and 464.6 per 100,000 population. There was a correlation between the all-cause excess mortality and COVID-19 mortality (r = 0.90; = 0.00001; y = 0.8729x + 90.808; R = 0.84). Adjusted for confounding factors (mean age in the region, gender balance, and number of intensive care unit (ICU) beds), the all-cause excess mortality rate was correlated with COVID-19 mortality rate (β = 0.921; = 0.0001). These findings suggest that most of the excess deaths in Peru are related to COVID-19. Therefore, these findings can help decision-makers to understand the high COVID-19 mortality rates in Peru.
在新冠疫情期间，包括秘鲁在内的多个国家都记录到全因死亡率过高的情况。大多数额外死亡可能归因于新冠病毒。在本研究中，我们比较了秘鲁25个地区的全因死亡率过高情况和新冠病毒死亡率，以确定2020年的大多数额外死亡是否归因于新冠病毒。额外死亡人数的计算方法是，新冠疫情期间（2020年）所有原因导致的观察到的死亡人数与基于近年（2017 - 2019年）历史数据得出的2020年预期死亡人数之间的差值。死亡数据取自秘鲁卫生部的国家死亡信息系统（SINADEF），时间跨度为2017年1月至2020年12月。人口计数来自秘鲁国家统计和信息研究所（INEI）的预测。全因额外死亡率和新冠病毒死亡率按每10万人口计算到各地区。使用斯皮尔曼检验以及线性和多元回归模型来估计每10万人口的全因额外死亡率与新冠病毒死亡率之间的相关性。各地区的全因额外死亡率差异很大（范围：每10万人口115.1至519.8），新冠病毒死亡率在每10万人口83.8至464.6之间。全因额外死亡率与新冠病毒死亡率之间存在相关性（r = 0.90；P = 0.00001；y = 0.8729x + 90.808；R = 0.84）。在对混杂因素（该地区的平均年龄、性别平衡和重症监护病房（ICU）床位数量）进行调整后，全因额外死亡率与新冠病毒死亡率相关（β = 0.921；P = 0.0001）。这些发现表明，秘鲁的大多数额外死亡与新冠病毒有关。因此，这些发现有助于决策者了解秘鲁新冠病毒的高死亡率。
