Department of Radiology, Second Affiliated Hospital of Navy Medical University, Shanghai, China
Department of Radiology, Weifang Medical University, School of Medical Imaging, Weifang, China
Diagn Interv Radiol. 2023 Mar 29;29(2):379-389. doi: 10.4274/dir.2023.222006. Epub 2023 Feb 21.
PURPOSE: Preoperative prediction of visceral pleural invasion (VPI) is important because it enables thoracic surgeons to choose appropriate surgical plans. This study aimed to develop and validate a multivariate logistic regression model incorporating the maximum standardized uptake value (SUV) and valuable computed tomography (CT) signs for the non-invasive prediction of VPI status in subpleural clinical stage IA lung adenocarcinoma patients before surgery. METHODS: A total of 140 patients with subpleural clinical stage IA peripheral lung adenocarcinoma were recruited and divided into a training set (n = 98) and a validation set (n = 42), according to the positron emission tomography/CT examination temporal sequence, with a 7:3 ratio. Next, VPI-positive and VPI-negative groups were formed based on the pathological results. In the training set, the clinical information, the SUV, the relationship between the tumor and the pleura, and the CT features were analyzed using univariate analysis. The variables with significant differences were included in the multivariate analysis to construct a prediction model. A nomogram based on multivariate analysis was developed, and its predictive performance was verified in the validation set. RESULTS: The size of the solid component, the consolidation-to-tumor ratio, the solid component pleural contact length, the SUVmax, the density type, the pleural indentation, the spiculation, and the vascular convergence sign demonstrated significant differences between VPI-positive (n = 40) and VPI-negative (n = 58) cases on univariate analysis in the training set. A multivariate logistic regression model incorporated the SUV [odds ratio (OR): 1.753, = 0.002], the solid component pleural contact length (OR: 1.101, = 0.034), the pleural indentation (OR: 5.075, = 0.041), and the vascular convergence sign (OR: 13.324, = 0.025) as the best combination of predictors, which were all independent risk factors for VPI in the training group. The nomogram indicated promising discrimination, with an area under the curve value of 0.892 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.813-0.946] in the training set and 0.885 (95% CI, 0.748-0.962) in the validation set. The calibration curve demonstrated that its predicted probabilities were in acceptable agreement with the actual probability. The decision curve analysis illustrated that the current nomogram would add more net benefit. CONCLUSION: The nomogram integrating the SUV and the CT features could non-invasively predict VPI status before surgery in subpleural clinical stage IA lung adenocarcinoma patients.
目的:术前预测内脏胸膜侵犯(VPI)非常重要,因为它使胸外科医生能够选择合适的手术方案。本研究旨在开发和验证一种多变量逻辑回归模型,该模型纳入最大标准化摄取值(SUV)和有价值的 CT 征象,以在术前对亚胸膜临床分期 IA 肺腺癌患者的 VPI 状态进行非侵入性预测。
方法:根据正电子发射断层扫描/CT 检查时间序列,将 140 例亚胸膜临床分期 IA 周围型肺腺癌患者分为训练集(n=98)和验证集(n=42),比例为 7:3。然后,根据病理结果将 VPI 阳性和 VPI 阴性组形成。在训练集中,使用单因素分析对临床信息、SUV、肿瘤与胸膜的关系以及 CT 特征进行分析。将有显著差异的变量纳入多因素分析,以构建预测模型。基于多因素分析开发了一个列线图,并在验证集中验证了其预测性能。
结果:在训练集中,VPI 阳性(n=40)和 VPI 阴性(n=58)患者之间,肿瘤的实性成分大小、实变与肿瘤的比值、实性成分胸膜接触长度、SUVmax、密度类型、胸膜凹陷、分叶征和血管汇聚征均有显著差异。多变量逻辑回归模型纳入 SUV[比值比(OR):1.753, = 0.002]、实性成分胸膜接触长度(OR:1.101, = 0.034)、胸膜凹陷(OR:5.075, = 0.041)和血管汇聚征(OR:13.324, = 0.025)作为预测 VPI 的最佳组合预测因子,均为 VPI 的独立危险因素。列线图显示出良好的判别能力,在训练组中曲线下面积值为 0.892[95%置信区间(CI):0.813-0.946],在验证组中为 0.885(95%CI:0.748-0.962)。校准曲线表明,其预测概率与实际概率具有良好的一致性。决策曲线分析表明,当前的列线图可以增加更多的净收益。
结论:纳入 SUV 和 CT 特征的列线图可在术前非侵入性预测亚胸膜临床分期 IA 肺腺癌患者的 VPI 状态。
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