Division of Family Medicine and Primary Care, Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society, Karolinska Institutet, Huddinge, Sweden.
Academic Centre for Geriatric Dentistry, Stockholm, Sweden.
PLoS One. 2023 Mar 29;18(3):e0283564. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0283564. eCollection 2023.
We do not know if fracture predicting factors are constant throughout life, if they can be assessed earlier in life, and for how long. The aim was to study the association between questions about health status and mobility and fragility fractures in a cohort during a 35-year follow-up. A cohort of 16,536 men and women in two age groups, 26-45 and 46-65 years old, who answered five questions of their physical health status in postal surveys in 1969-1970. We obtained data on hip fractures from 1970 to the end of 2016. We found most significant results when restricting the follow-up to age 60-85 years, 35 for the younger age group and 20 years for the older. Men of both age groups considered "at risk" according to their answers had a 2.69 (CI 1.85-3.90)- 3.30 (CI 1.51-7.23) increased risk of having a hip fracture during a follow-up. Women in the younger age group had a 2.69 (CI 1.85-3.90) increased risk, but there was no elevated risk for women in the older age group. This study shows that questions/index of physical health status may be associated with hip fractures that occur many years later in life, and that there is a time span when the predictive value of the questions can be used, before other, age-related, factors dominate. Our interpretation of the results is that we are studying the most vulnerable, who have hip fractures relatively early in life, and that hip fractures are so common among older women that the questions in the survey lose their predictive value.
我们不知道骨折预测因素是否终生不变,它们是否可以在生命早期评估,以及可以评估多长时间。目的是在一项 35 年的随访研究中,研究健康状况和活动能力问题与脆性骨折之间的关系。该队列包括两个年龄组(26-45 岁和 46-65 岁)的 16536 名男性和女性,他们在 1969-1970 年的邮政调查中回答了五个关于身体健康状况的问题。我们从 1970 年到 2016 年底获得了髋部骨折的数据。当将随访时间限制在 60-85 岁时,我们发现了最显著的结果,对于年龄较小的组为 35 年,对于年龄较大的组为 20 年。根据他们的回答被认为“有风险”的两个年龄组的男性,在随访期间髋部骨折的风险增加了 2.69(CI 1.85-3.90)-3.30(CI 1.51-7.23)。年龄较小的女性髋部骨折风险增加了 2.69(CI 1.85-3.90),但年龄较大的女性髋部骨折风险没有增加。这项研究表明,身体健康状况的问题/指数可能与多年后发生的髋部骨折有关,并且在其他与年龄相关的因素占主导地位之前,有一段时间可以使用这些问题的预测价值。我们对结果的解释是,我们正在研究最脆弱的人群,他们在生命早期就发生了髋部骨折,而老年女性髋部骨折如此常见,以至于调查中的问题失去了预测价值。