Maclachlan Laura, Betnér Staffan, Lind Tomas, Georgelis Antonis, Lõhmus Mare
Centre for Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Sweden.
Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Sweden.
Scand J Public Health. 2025 Mar;53(2):156-161. doi: 10.1177/14034948221148046. Epub 2023 Apr 4.
Rising temperatures lead to milder winters in Scandinavia. In certain regions, this could increase the number of winter days that fluctuate around 0°C (zero crossings). It has been frequently suggested that there is a higher risk of icy conditions during such days, which may lead to a predisposition to falls and road traffic accidents. Here, we examine the association between number of days with zero crossings and the number of hospitalisations and outpatient visits due to falls related to ice or snow or transport accidents.
We used Poisson regression to examine the association between the number of days with zero crossings and the incidence of inpatient and outpatient visits related to falls due to ice and snow and to transport accidents during 2001-2017 in the Swedish cities of Stockholm, Malmö and Umeå.
We found a positive and significant association between the number of days of zero crossings and the number of in- and outpatient cases due to falls related to ice and snow. These associations were strongest in Umeå but less obvious in Stockholm and Malmö. In terms of injuries related to transport accidents, we saw a significant association between inpatient cases and number of zero crossings in Stockholm but not in Malmö or Umeå.
An increased number of zero crossings may increase out- and inpatient visits related to falls due to ice and snow or transport accidents. This effect is more pronounced in the northern city of Umeå than in Malmö, a city in Sweden's southern-most region.
气温上升导致斯堪的纳维亚地区冬季气候更为温和。在某些地区，这可能会增加气温在0°C左右波动（零交叉）的冬季天数。人们经常认为，在这些日子里结冰的风险更高，这可能会导致跌倒和道路交通事故的易发性增加。在此，我们研究零交叉天数与因冰雪或交通事故导致的跌倒相关的住院和门诊就诊次数之间的关联。
我们使用泊松回归分析来研究2001年至2017年期间瑞典斯德哥尔摩、马尔默和于默奥市零交叉天数与因冰雪和交通事故导致的跌倒相关的住院和门诊就诊发生率之间的关联。
我们发现零交叉天数与因冰雪导致的跌倒相关的住院和门诊病例数之间存在正相关且显著的关联。这些关联在于默奥最为明显，但在斯德哥尔摩和马尔默则不太明显。在与交通事故相关的伤害方面，我们发现斯德哥尔摩的住院病例数与零交叉天数之间存在显著关联，而在马尔默或于默奥则不存在。
零交叉天数的增加可能会增加因冰雪或交通事故导致的跌倒相关的门诊和住院就诊次数。这种影响在北部城市于默奥比在瑞典最南部地区的城市马尔默更为明显。
