Coastal Risks and Sea‑Level Rise Research Group, Department of Geography, Christian-Albrechts University Kiel, Kiel, Germany.
Sci Rep. 2023 Apr 4;13(1):5515. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-32059-9.
Coastal space is one of the most valuable assets of the EU coastal member states, as the coast is highly urbanized. Hard engineering has traditionally been employed to protect communities in coastal lowlands, but as this alternative becomes less sustainable and more costly, coastal managers are increasingly turning to landuse planning strategies, such as setback zones or managed retreat. To explore the efficiency of these planning tools in reducing future urban exposure to sea-level rise and associated hazards, we developed spatially explicit projections of urban extent that account for different socio-economic futures and various types of setback zones. We find that the establishment of coastal setback zones can reduce the exposure of new urban development by at least 50% in the majority of EU countries by 2100. Our results emphasize that future urban exposure to sea-level rise will be significantly influenced by the ways in which we plan, design, and develop urban space in the EU coastal lowlands.
沿海地区是欧盟沿海成员国最宝贵的资产之一，因为沿海地区高度城市化。传统上，硬体工程被用于保护沿海低地的社区，但由于这种替代方案变得不那么可持续且成本更高，沿海管理者越来越多地转向土地使用规划策略，例如退缩区或管理撤退。为了探索这些规划工具在减少未来城市面临海平面上升和相关灾害方面的效率，我们开发了考虑不同社会经济未来和各种退缩区类型的城市范围的空间明确预测。我们发现，到 2100 年，在大多数欧盟国家中，建立沿海退缩区至少可以将新的城市发展的暴露程度降低 50%。我们的研究结果强调，未来城市面临海平面上升的程度将受到我们在欧盟沿海低地规划、设计和开发城市空间方式的显著影响。
